Old conflicts slow democracy's march in Mideast
Local, regional issues complicate push for democracy in Iraq, Egypt, Lebanon, and between Israel and Palestinians.
Earlier this month, US President George W. Bush
triumphantly proclaimed that history was "moving quickly" and called on governments in the Middle East to support democratic measures. While the president may be right about the new direction for the region, recent developments show that reform in Arab countries, and between Israel and the Palestinians, is facing complicated challenges.
In Lebanon, the
BBC reports, Walid Jumblatt, the "most prominent" ant-Syrian leader, has said he believes that Hizbullah should be allowed to keep its weapons "
until Israel withdraws from a disputed area" in the south known as
Shebaa Farms. President Bush had called upon the Syrian-backed Hizbullah to give up its arms immediately.
In 2004, the UN Security Council called on "all foreign forces," specifically Syria and Israel, to leave Lebanon, and for the disarmament of all militias.
In Iraq, the
Guardian reports that the resistance there has reached its apex, and is now "
turning in on itself."
Though the reports predict that violence against coalition troops and local forces is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, at least two Middle Eastern intelligence agencies believe that recent 'backchannel' initiatives aimed at persuading Sunni Muslim tribes in western Iraq to cease their resistance are meeting with some success. The talks are aimed at driving a wedge between so-called Iraqi nationalist elements of the resistance and radical Islamic militants.
But as the resistance slows down, there are signs that sectarian violence may flare in Iraq, reports
The Boston Globe. For the first time, the
Globe reports, Sunni Muslim sheikhs are
encouraging their followers to "fight back" against Shiites and Kurds.
Increasingly, terms like 'insurgency' and 'anti-Iraqi forces' favored by American officials here fail to fully describe much of the violence. Iraqi politicians say the worst violence is being carried out by Sunni fighters against Shiites and Kurds – both civilians and those who work for security forces backed by the Iraqi government.
Sunnis have now started referring to an almost exclusively Sunni resistance front they call 'patriotic Arabs,' who are retaliating against the Shiite-Kurd coalition that has driven the once dominant Sunni clique to the nation's political margins.
The
Associated Press says that average Iraqs are "growing restless" over the pace of reform. Supporters of former interim premier Iyad Allawi critcized the "i
nvolvement of religious authorities" in politics, while "Abdel-Aziz al-Hakim, leader of the Shiite-led United Iraqi Alliance, defended the role of the clergy."
The Daily Star of Lebanon says one of the
biggest stumbling blocks to the formation of a new government is disagreement between Kurds and Shiites over who will beome Iraq's new oil minister.
In Egypt, the
Christian Science Monitor reports that only a few weeks after President Hosni Mubarak announced that the next election in Egypt will feature multiple candidates for the presidency, Mr. Mubarak
launched a crackdown on opposition members. Government police arrested 70 members of the Muslim Brotherhood Sunday. While the Brotherhood is outlawed in Egypt, the
Monitor says the action of the Egpytian government will "put the US in a tight spot."
The Bush administration has been pushing hard for more democracy in the Middle East. But while the Brotherhood - like most of Egypt's democracy advocates - would seem to be on board with President Bush's reform agenda, it is also deeply hostile to US policies in the region. The Brotherhood and groups like the Kafaya (Enough) movement - a range of secular organizations with limited grass-roots support - react with hostility when asked if they think the opening is a result of US policy.
Instead, they say, the US props up undemocratic regimes, and its use of force in Iraq was both illegal and immoral.
The
Monitor notes that "truly free" elections in Egypt might result in the Muslim Brotherhood forming the government, a move that "could complicate US policy in the Middle East."
Finally, the announcement by Israel last week that it plans to build 3500 new homes in the largest West Bank settlement ��� Maaleh Adumim [in an area Israel sees as part of greater Jerusalem]
put a damper on peace prospects in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
On Friday the
Los Angeles Times reported US Secretary of State Condeelza Rice said that the Israeli action was "
at odds with US policy and could threaten peace with the Palestinians." But then on Sunday, the
Pakistan Times reports, she reversed herself, denying that the US had
any disagreements with Israel about settlements, "reiterating that any final negotiations will have to take major population centers into account."
Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas
reacted angrily to the US's position, although he did not criticize the US by name.
An editorial in the
Orlando Sentinel argues that the
timing of Israel's announcement was terrible for the peace process.
[Israeli Prime Minister] Sharon has shown great courage in pushing ahead with a plan to evacuate Jewish settlements in the Gaza Strip. But his timing in approving the West Bank settlement expansion couldn't be much worse. Just last week, representatives of 13 Palestinian factions agreed to extend an unofficial truce with Israel through the end of this year.
It is true that Abbas has not moved to disarm Palestinian terrorist groups, as the US-sponsored peace plan, known as the road map, requires. But expanding Israeli settlements also violates the road map. And it undermines Abbas, who has taken a stand against violence. It won't do anything to bolster Israeli security.
Ha'aretz reports that Sunday Mr. Sharon said Israel
plans to keep larger settlements in the West Bank regardless of what the US says or wants.
On a more positive note, the
BBC reports that a love song performed by an Israeli and a Palestinian
was broadcast simultaneously by Israeli Army Radio and Voice of Palestine radio, the first time a song sung in Hebrew was ever carried by the Palestinian radio station.
Even then, the broadcast did not come without its tense moment. An Israeli announcer and the president of the Palestinian Broadcasting Corporation talked about their hopes for peace after the song was broadcast. Then the Israeli announcer asked, "Have you stopped, sir, incitement messages in your broadcasts?"
"We did not start it," the president of the PBC replied.
Also...
•
A long march to freedom gets a slow start (
Financial Times)
•
UN rights expert praises Israel (
BBC)
•
How to influence Muslim minds and capture the Arab hearts (
Arab News)
•
Halliburton agrees to forgo new contracts in Iran (
FAIR)
•
Premature euphoria over US-style Mideast democracy? (
Christian Science Monitor)
•
Ex-MI6 man starts US-Hamas talks (
Times of London)
• Feedback appreciated. E-mail
Tom Regan
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