Lebanon's fine example - so far

Tiny Lebanon once again looks like a fulcrum for what's happening in the Middle East. Indeed, earlier this month President Bush and his supporters were claiming that the anti-Syrian demonstrations there were leading a new wave of democratization that could serve American interests in the region and could even - along with the success of January's election in Iraq - be seen as somehow "justifying" the invasion of Iraq.

Well, yes and no ...

Let me say first that I strongly supported Mr. Bush when he vowed in his State of the Union speech Feb. 2 that "America will stand with the allies of freedom to support democratic movements in the Middle East and beyond.... Our aim is to build and preserve a community of free and independent nations, with governments that answer to their citizens, and reflect their own cultures." This is a wonderful, visionary goal that would seem to reverse several decades during which Washington supported many authoritarian governments in the region.

Then in mid-February, in Lebanon, the atrocious killing of former premier Rafik Hariri gave a big boost to the movement of Lebanese citizens opposed to Syria's meddling in their country's affairs. (They accused Syria of organizing the killing, though no evidence of that has yet emerged.) Anti-Syrian demonstrations started building in Beirut. Bush exulted that this citizens' movement might drive out the 14,000 troops that Syria has long maintained in Lebanon; and some US critics of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad even speculated that popular anger against him might soon erupt inside Syria, too.

Mr. Assad, apparently cowed, said he would pull his troops out of Lebanon - even if only in stages. It looked to many as though Bush's campaign against him, allied with the anti-Syrian movement in Beirut, had Assad on the run.

But the situation became much more complex. On March 8, the Lebanese group Hizbullah organized a massive counterdemonstration in Beirut that "thanked" the Syrians for what they'd done in Lebanon. Hizbullah also made clear it was not prepared at all to comply with US and UN demands that it disband and disarm the 5,000-man militia it maintains in southern Lebanon.

Hizbullah is a powerful political presence in the land of the cedars. It's the dominant current in the Shiite community, which makes up just under half of Lebanon's population. It has 12 members in the 128-member parliament - and ironically, if Syria's influence over Lebanon is reduced, Hizbullah will likely gain more seats in the elections scheduled for May. The party's leader, Sayed Hassan Nasrallah, is patient and smart, and has built sturdy alliances with many other Lebanese politicians, Muslim and Christian.

After Hizbullah's demonstration, Washington did an apparent about-face, with unnamed officials telling The New York Times they were now eager to see Hizbullah incorporated in Lebanon's political system.

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