What Mideast ferment means for US

The political and social effervescence suddenly sweeping the Middle East - from Baghdad to Beirut, from Cairo to Casablanca - is providing the United States and the rest of the world with both new opportunities and new risks.

With pro-democracy demonstrations popping up in Lebanon and Egypt, and with modest but still unprecedented elections taking place in places like Saudi Arabia, Arabs and Muslims are expressing the same interest in self-determination they saw their brethren in Iraq and the Palestinian territories exercise just a few weeks ago.

The Western world especially is viewing the changes with almost giddy expectation. Certainly a more democratic and open region holds out the possibility of greater public satisfaction and therefore less attraction to extremist mobilization. But it could also expose a crucial arc of nations long governed with a strong hand to greater turmoil.

"It's a good thing that a broader spectrum of civil society is being acknowledged, that people are less timid and trying to have a voice in public decisionmaking, that all around the region there are very few places where you don't see movements of this kind," says Michael Hudson, director of the Center for Contemporary Arab Studies at Georgetown University in Washington. "But as it unfolds, it's a tricky business."

One reason is that "people who have been in power for a long time are unlikely to give it up without a fight," he says.

As democracy and more open political systems have gained ground across Eastern Europe, Latin America, and parts of Asia, many nations in those regions have become more peaceful and solid members of the international community. This has led to speculation that the same should work in the Middle East. As for Islamic extremism, the theory - and that's about all there is to go on - is that its allure should be reduced as young Muslims find other political outlets for venting their frustrations.

But the conventional rules don't always apply in the Middle East, a region accustomed to authoritarian rule. One risk is that the deep anti-American sentiment that pervades many of the countries could turn even more resolutely anti-Western as the public gains freedom and power.

Today in Lebanon, for example, the militant Shiite movement Hizbullah is set to begin holding national demonstrations in opposition to what it sees as unacceptable Western influence in Lebanese affairs. "Freedom means that we decide for ourselves the best way to address what we see today as clear intervention of the United States and France in Lebanese internal affairs," said Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah at a Beirut press conference Sunday.

The US and France have been outspoken in their coordinated demands that Syria withdraw its troops and intelligence forces from Lebanon ahead of spring elections. Syria is a behind-the-scenes sponsor of Hizbullah in Lebanon.

"We're seeing the national unity movement with new vigor and pressing to get Syria out of the country, but at the same time we see a counter movement in the counterdemonstrations Hizbullah is sponsoring," notes Mr. Hudson. "It raises the question of whether the future holds the kind of civil strife that has hit Lebanon before."

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