Lebanon faces a critical week

If Lahoud is cornered by the opposition, he may seek to form a military government rather than step down, says Professor Hamzeh. "If the opposition accepts the resignation of the government as a major victory and is willing to compromise on a neutral government, the country might be saved by the skin of its teeth," he says.

But the opposition also has set its sights on the heads of Lebanon's intelligence services, who are accused of subordinating Lebanon's interests to those of Syria and some of whom are suspected by many Lebanese of having played a role in Mr. Hariri's assassination.

While the prospects looks bleak for some of Syria's most loyal allies in Lebanon, analysts in Damascus say that the Syrian government is "optimistic" it can forge a new relationship with a future government in Beirut.

"The crucial time will be from now until the elections," says Ibrahim Hamidi, a Syrian political analyst and correspondent for the Arabic Al Hayat daily. "If the Syrians play the game cleverly, they can have good relations with any government in Beirut."

Indeed, despite the intense anti-Syrian protests on the streets of Beirut over the past two weeks, opposition leaders have been careful to stress their desire for good relations with Syria.

"The Syrian-Lebanese security agencies should be dismantled next ... and Syrian forces must be withdrawn from Lebanon," said Mr. Jumblatt following Mr. Karami's resignation. "All this should be done without hostility to Syria. Hostility toward Syria will not be tolerated."

And that, analysts say, is why Syria is believed to be ready to stage a near total troop withdrawal, leaving around 2,000 soldiers in eastern Lebanon along the Syrian border in a defensive posture against Israel.

Analysts in Damascus say that senior members of the ruling Baath Party have accepted the necessity of withdrawing from Lebanon and regularizing relations between the two countries. But only up to a point.

Landis, the Damascus-based professor, says that in order of importance, the Syrians view retaining influence in Lebanon as second only to the survival of the regime. With the tentacles of Syrian influence removed from Lebanon, Damascus will sit back and watch from afar as the Lebanese adjust to the new realities, he says.

"They [the Lebanese] may be in the flush of freedom, but once the battleground for the future of Lebanon begins to take shape we are going to see all of those old confessional divisions line up, and Syria wants to be in a position where it's not the focus of attention, [but is a player] in the background," says Landis. "Syria's relationship with Lebanon is special and that's what Syria is trying to maintain throughout this whole thing."

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