Schwarzenegger vows political end run

What's more, a fall ballot could be flooded by dozens of other initiatives from groups seeking to ride Schwarzenegger's coattails or to oppose the governor's plans. Since the beginning of the year, more than 70 proposed ballot initiatives have been submitted to the state. Political wisdom suggests that voters tend to get confused by too many ballot initiatives, and when they become confused, they reactively vote "no."

That's one reason Schwarzenegger has been raising huge funds, some analysts say, predicting an epic battle for Californians votes this year in mall tours and TV ads that echo the frantic days of the recall campaign.

Clearly, Schwarzenegger's goal will be to simplify the debate to a single point: You elected me to clean up this mess and Legislature won't help, so give me the tools to do it. Already, there is some evidence that such a tactic might work. An early poll shows that each of his four measures holds a lead. Considering that Californians have defeated redistricting initiatives before, it's a positive sign.

Yet only one measure - merit pay - leads by a large margin. "That puts them on perilous ground, especially with well-funded opponents on the 'no' side," says Mark DiCamillo of the Field Poll in San Francisco.

It's hard to imagine a package of reforms that could generate stronger opposition. On one hand, Schwarzenegger is taking on the entire political establishment - including his own Republican Party - by taking redistricting out of the hands of state legislators. On the other, the remaining three reforms cut into core Democratic constituencies, from public-employee unions to advocates for the poor.

"This guy has really gone overboard," says David Sanchez, vice president of the California Teachers Association in Burlingame. "If anything, [the reforms] have made us want to go to war with this guy."

Some see Schwarzenegger's more combative attitude as a function of political necessity. He now has one year of experience and is still one year away from the 2006 gubernatorial election: This is his only opportunity to push tough reforms.

Yet there is evidence that, among Democrats at least, Schwarzenegger's aggressive new tactics have cast him a partisan figure, not a bipartisan problem solver. In his first year in Sacramento, when the "Governator" more often opted for backslaps than headlocks, his approval rating hit 65 percent.

This year, however, as California's erstwhile Conan appears to be sharpening his sword, his approval rating has dipped 10 points. Democrats have been the difference. In a state that often leans left, that is the danger of taking a rather conservative batch of reforms one analyst calls "Bush lite" to the people. "If he passes this reform package, he'll glide though to reelection," says Schnur. "If he's defeated, it's entirely possible that he would decide not to run for a second term."

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