Bush leans on Putin. Will he budge?

Nearly four years after Presidents George Bush and Vladimir Putin formed warm personal ties, relations between Moscow and Washington are again chilly, and testing the partnership.

Thursday's much-awaited summit in Slovakia could redefine US-Russian ties, as two different worldviews contribute to rising tensions over the spread of democracy, a potentially nuclear Iran, and missile sales to Syria.

The rekindled US focus on democracy - after three years of seeing nearly every foreign policy issue through the prism of the war on terror - has deepened anxiety for Russia leading up to the summit.

Bush's comments Monday in Brussels that the US and Europe "should place democratic reform at the heart of their dialogue with Russia" underscores how at odds the two leaders are over the importance of democratic reforms.

Although both nations remain committed to strategic issues of nuclear nonproliferation and the war on terror, the Kremlin has deepened its authoritarian rule, opposed the US invasion of Iraq, and accused Washington of trying to lure former Soviet states into the Western camp, by helping orchestrate revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia.

"From the Russian perspective, this is all a double standard," says Fiona Hill, a Russia expert at the Brookings Institution in Washington. "There is certainly this widespread anti-Americanism within the Russian elite, a feeling that the US lost any moral high ground it could possibly have because of Iraq, Abu Ghraib, and increasing concern of US intentions locally."

Including all these issues in a single summit meeting may not be easy, but some argue that it's to Putin's advantage to meet face to face with Bush.

"In many ways, this summit is an attempt by Putin to come back to his core strength," says Pavel Baev, a Russia analyst at the International Peace Research Institute in Oslo, Norway. "He feels that his real effort is that man-to-man, eye-to-eye relationship ... and probably feels he can reconnect to President Bush."

There may be one trump card up his sleeve, too, that has become more important since the Jan. 30 election in Iraq. A decision to send Russian troops to Iraq - or just the promise of such troops, serving as peacekeepers as part of the US-led coalition - would be a seen as a commitment to the new Iraqi government, and not the continuing US occupation.

Since the Iraqi vote, US officials may have already sent the message to Moscow, Mr. Baev says, that Russian troops would be "greatly appreciated."

"[Putin] would be very reluctant to play that card, and would use it only as a last resort, but still he might," says Baev.

Russia has reaffirmed its commitment to Iranian nuclear power - despite Washington's concern that Iran's efforts mask a nuclear weapons program - and is reportedly in talks to build more nuclear power plants. Just two days after Thursday's Bush-Putin summit, Iran and Russia are to sign a long-delayed deal on nuclear fuel supply. Bush has called Iran part of an "axis of evil," whereas Putin last week said he was "convinced" Iran had no intention of building atomic bombs, and called Iran a "long-standing partner."

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