N. Ireland peace holds, for now

"The statement represents an ominous development and a major deterioration in the peace process," says Danny Morrison, a republican writer and former IRA militant. "Republican frustration and anger has been building.... There is a feeling that each and every time republicans have made concessions, the goalposts are shifted by unionists, often with the support or tolerance of the two governments" of Britain and Ireland.

Yet on the streets, it is hard to detect a sense of crisis. Belfast has come a long way in the past decade and no longer has the feel of a town on the edge. Investment has brought prosperity, modernity, and moderation. The spring marching season no longer produces the kind of sectarian flash points that set Protestant unionist against Catholic republican.

Stephen McGlennon, for example, isn't intimidated by IRA statements hinting at confrontation. "It's just the same sort of rubbish we always hear from them," says the young liberal from Portaferry. "They're asking for more concessions than they're prepared to give."

Tom Watson, a unionist from Holywood, says most people just want to be left alone. "Both sides keep playing games and unfortunately we, the people, are left in the middle trying to get on with our lives," he says. "At this point, very few people care if the [local power-sharing] Assembly gets back up and running again. I personally don't really care who governs us, be it Dublin, London, or Paris, as long as no one gets killed."

Experts say the British government has no desire to retain rule over Northern Ireland indefinitely, and has sought ways to devolve power. There will be new initiatives, probably after British elections in the spring, to revive the local authorities.

To do so will require a restoration of trust - a formidable challenge given the climate.

Sean Farren, a representative of the moderate nationalist Social Democratic and Labour Party, says that something has to be done about the IRA's role in the peace process, particularly if its crime links are proven.

"It is known to be systematically engaged in protection, racketeering, robberies and drug smuggling," says Mr. Farren. "The IRA's influence derives from their political connections, without which they'd be pursued like any other criminal gang. The British government has taken a pragmatic and, in my opinion, not very principled approach to the IRA in order to keep Sinn Fein involved in the peace process."

Others say a return to violence is not out of the question. More than 30 years after it launched its armed struggle, the IRA is no nearer its stated aim of a united, democratic, socialist Ireland. If the status quo of partition is formalized, the IRA may not feel it needs to play ball.

"If there is a sense that its long-term goals are not going to be agreed, then there might be a problem," says Sydney Elliott, senior lecturer in politics at Queen's University in Belfast. "Their desire to maintain involvement could disappear, and all things are possible - including a return to violence."

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