Ibrahim Jaafari, a stern and careful Iraqi doctor whose Islamist activism began in his youth and continued during a 20-year exile, is pulling ahead of his rivals in the race to lead Iraq's first elected government since World War II.

Though there's still room for change, aides to both Mr. Jaafari and members of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), the party of his main rival, say they're close to a deal that will deliver him the premiership.

"There's a general acceptance that Jaafari should be our sole candidate,'' says Adnan Ali al-Khadimi, Jaafari's deputy chief of staff. "That's what we're hearing, but there hasn't been a formal announcement yet."

Jaafari's rise will put a Shiite Islamist in charge of the government for the first time in Iraq's history. It also underscores waning US influence over Iraq's politics. The US would have preferred to see a secular leader emerge, not an Islamist who once lived in Iran. Jaafari's party is also unlikely to support expanded ties with Israel, a goal articulated by the US at the start of the war.

And while Jaafari enjoys some support among Iraqis, his new parliament may well be consumed by politicking over constitutional issues rather than creating jobs that Iraqis desperately want and fixing the power supply.

The name of Jaafari's party loosely translates as "Islamic Call" or "Islamic Propagation." While his priorities are protecting the rights of all citizens and ending the war that has claimed tens of thousands of lives, Islam is at the center of his party's vision for the country.

As a politician, Jaafari presents a blend of a secular style, human rights rhetoric, and commitment to Islamic values that sometimes seem contradictory to Western observers.

But his friends and allies say no contradiction exists - that he's a pragmatic politician who sees Islam as the best guarantee against more turmoil, and who believes that a modern interpretation of Islam's political role can be found that's acceptable to most who live here.

"Iraq's minorities must be protected, and they must be given their rights,'' Jaafari said in a recent interview with the Monitor. "But we must also respect the majority, so Islam should be the official religion of the state ... and we shouldn't have any laws that contradict Islam."

"He looks at Islam as a bridge to all humanity, not just for on particular type of people,'' says Mr. Khadimi. "He doesn't want an Islamic republic like Iran's, or a system like Saudi Arabia's. He wants to see something modernized and that recognizes that Iraqis are closely tied to their religion and traditions. He's going with what the Iraqi people want."

"I wouldn't say he's secular, or religious either,'' says Toby Dodge, an Iraq expert at Queen Mary University in London. While Dawa - Iraq's oldest Shiite party - traditionally wanted sharia (Islamic law) for Iraq, Mr. Dodge says the exiles have recognized that something on an Iranian model would be distasteful to average Iraqis, and have altered their message. "Jaafari has been particularly honest about this. He is a pragmatist and the reason he has [some] support ... now is because he recognizes he can't fulfill the dreams of exiles."

But Iraq's top job will not come without complications. The United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), the religious Shiite slate that won 140 seats in Iraq's 275-member national assembly, has been locked for a week in marathon negotiations over how to divvy up power and patronage.

The UIA's main players are Dawa and SCIRI, who are sparring over both the premiership and ministerial posts.

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