World>Terrorism & Security
posted February 10, 2005, updated 12:00 p.m.

Iraq to close borders next week

Decision made to protect pilgrims as experts debate staying power of insurgency.

By Tom Regan | csmonitor.com

In a move designed to prevent Iraqi insurgent attacks, Reuters reports that Iraq will close its borders to millions of Shiite pilgrims who want to travel to Iraq to celebrate the climax of the major Shiite religious ceremony Ashura, "during which many parade and beat themselves in homage to the martyrdom of Imman Hussein in 680 AD."

Last year, insurgents killed 171 people in attacks on pilgrims in the Shiite holy cities of Karbala and Najaf.

Violence continued across Iraq on Thursday. The Jordan-based English-language news website AlBawaba.com reports that at least five people were killed in attacks, while authorities found the bodies of 25 people (including 20 truck drivers south of Baghdad). Wednesday, an Iraqi journalist who worked for Al Hurra, the US-supported satellite channel in Iraq, was killed outside his home. Gunmen also killed a senior interior ministry spokesman in Baghdad.


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The question of how long the insurgency will last after the recent elections continues to be debated.

Wednesday The Chicago Tribune quoted a senior US official in Baghdad as saying that the insurgency will last many years. "I think it's going to take quite a number of years. I do not see any early end," the official said.

'The most optimistic scenario is that you have on the one hand a set of political developments that increasingly convince Sunnis that they can live successfully and be reasonably well protected ... not as an oppressed minority,' he said. 'And militarily you put more and more pressure on - and then it will still take years.'
'It is political and military. They are not alternatives,' he added.

University of Michigan professor of Middle Eastern Studies Juan Cole, who writes the Informed Comment blog, writes that this week's attacks on political party headquarters and probable members of the new Iraqi parliament point to " a looming danger for elected parliamentarians. They can't remain anonymous while serving in parliament, and the guerrillas will target all 275 for assassination."

Knight-Ridder this week interviewed Nabil Salman, a professor at Baghdad University who has studied the insurgency. He said he believed the attacks will last as long as US troops remain in the country.

Last week interim Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, however, predicted the insurgency would last a matter of months. Although it looks like Mr. Allawi won't retain the leadership role in Iraq after the final elections results are in, Lee Harris, writing for the conservative commentary site Tech Station Central, argues that because Allawi has done a good job, he must be allowed to remain in charge. Mr. Harris writes the US should do what ever it can - " pressure, bribe, [and] coerce" if necessary - to make sure this happens.

In a sign, however, that the recent Iraqi elections may be the beginning of the end for the insurgents, The Washington Post reports that Iraqi police and national guardsmen are starting to receive more tips about insurgent activity, which is leading to more arrests. The actions of Baghdad policeman Abdul Amir, who died protecting voters from a suicide bomber on election day, are being cited as part of the reason for the mood change.

'When people saw what he did, they said we will not let those violent people intimidate us, and they went to vote in even greater numbers. Where there were three or four in line, after the blast there were 30 or 40,' said Mohammed Hadithi.

Meanwhile, The New York Times reported Wednesday that this spring Iraqi judges will try at least two of the top 12 officials of the former Iraqi regime.

One of the first men to be tried will be a widely feared cousin of Mr. Hussein's, Ali Hassan al-Majid, known as Chemical Ali for his role in poison-gas attacks that killed thousands of Iraqi Kurds in the late 1980's, officials say. The other will be Barzan al-Tikriti, a half brother of Mr. Hussein's who served early in Mr. Hussein's rule as head of the mukhabarat secret police, identified by witnesses as having overseen the razing of a village north of Baghdad, and the killing of many of its male inhabitants, after an assassination attempt against Mr. Hussein in 1982.

The Baltimore Sun reports that trials will be televised and the accused could face the death penalty.