Global warming: a threat to world security?
With Kyoto starting next week, a bevy of experts and scientists warn of future conflict over disappearing resources.
Last week in England, a group of top scientists, experts and government officials gathered at the behest of Prime Minister Tony Blair to discuss global warming, and the news they heard there was not optimistic. The meeting came at a time when a number of voices from both the left and the right are saying that the leading governments of the world, the US in particular,
can no longer afford to ignore or dismiss the issue.
The
Independent reported Sunday that one of the effects that could be seen from global warming is wars fought
over vanishing resources, particularly water.
How would this come about? Over 25 percent more people than at present are expected to live in countries where water is scarce in the future, and global warming will make it worse.
How likely is it? Former UN chief Boutros Boutros-Ghali has long said that the next Middle East war will be fought for water, not oil.
The conjunction of the official start to the Kyoto Protocol to battle global warming next week, and a number of other important events (including published studies,) have pushed global warming to the forefront in recent weeks:
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In early January, Dr. Rajendra Pachauri, the chairman of the official Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), told an international conference of 114 nations gathered in Mauritius that the world has "already reached [a]
level of dangerous concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere" and called for immediate and "very deep" cuts in the pollution if humanity is to "survive".
The statement was interesting because Dr. Pachauri was put in place in 2001 at the behest of the Bush administration. Oil giant Exxon had asked the Bush administration to
replace his predecessor because he was too "aggressive" on the issue.
The blog
Daily Kos reported two weeks ago that Pachauri's recent comments were
very much a "blow" to the US position, especially since they saw him as a supporter of their "go slow" approach to battling global warming.
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The Sydney Morning Herald reported in mid-January that UN humanitarian chief Jan Egland said, "Tsunamis, earthquakes, hurricanes, volcanoes and other natural disasters
pose a greater global threat than war and terrorism."
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In late January, Oxford University released a report, published in the British journal
Nature, on the world's largest "climate change" experiment. According to the report, "Greenhouse gases could cause global temperatures to rise by
more than double the maximum warming so far considered likely by the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)."
Climateprediction.net project co-ordinator, Dr. David Frame, said: "the possibility of such high responses to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has profound implications. If the real world response were anywhere near the upper end of our range, even today's levels of greenhouse gases could already be dangerously high."
- In late January, the World Wildlife Federation, said "polar bears
could be extinct within 20 years because of global warming," and that the lives of indigenous peoples in arctic areas could become "unsustainable."
- In early February,
The New Zealand Herald reported on research by British scientists that found "Gigantic changes to the world's oceans, leading to
the complete disappearance of marine life from cod to coral reefs, are now threatened by the main greenhouse gas causing global warming." Sir David King, the British government's Chief Scientific Adviser, called the report very serious.
- Also last week, another group of scientists from the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) reported that "a massive Antarctic ice sheet previously assumed to be stable may be starting to disintegrate ..." Such an event could "raise sea levels around the world
by more than 16 feet."
-
CNN reported Monday on the speed in which glaciers around the world
are dissolving due to rising global temperatures.
The World Business Council for Sustainable Development reported that many experts who gathered last week for the conference called by Mr. Blair said that
business leaders hold the key to pushing the US government towards a more robust position on global warming.
"The business community is what is going to push this administration or the next one into international action, because it will make sense for them to do so," he [Professor Stephen Schneider of Stanford University ] said. The business community would act, he added, because of the commercial opportunities offered by adopting energy efficiency measures and investing in new, lower carbon technologies, and through fear of the commercial threats climate change poses. The insurance industry in particular has been taking the threats increasingly seriously, Prof. Schneider said.
The Sun Sentinel of Ft. Lauderdale, Florida, says the calls for a more aggressive policy about global warming aren't just coming from the left, but the right as well. It points to the policy paper from a group of "conservative security experts" (which includes well-known Republicans such as The Center for Security Policy's Frank Gaffney, former national security adviser Robert McFarlane, and former CIA director James Woolsey) who say that better environmental policies would not only promote a cleaner environment and a healthier economy, but
also have an impact on terrorism.
Their plan outlines a "perfect storm" of strategic, economic and environmental problems resulting from heavy US reliance on oil. In an open letter to the American people, the group cites terrorism and volatility in the oil-rich Middle East, the instability of oil prices, increased competition with China for supplies, job losses from a failing manufacturing sector and such environmental concerns as air pollution and global warming. The group wants President Bush to use his "bully pulpit" to "help Americans appreciate that driving efficient vehicles is a way to support the war."
Also...
•
Lawyer says US forces abused Kuwaiti prisoners (
Reuters)
•
Iran warns against strike on nuclear facilities (
MSNBC)
•
Revocation of medals adds insult to Marines' injuries (
Washington Post)
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