British plane crash in Iraq 'shrouded in mystery'

Britain is mourning its largest loss of life since the war in Iraq began in March 2003.

Ten British servicemen died when a military transport plane headed from Baghdad for a US base in Balad exploded on Sunday.

The Independent reports that "it looked increasingly likely that the 10 servicemen on board the Hercules C-130 were killed by insurgents, but details of the crash were shrouded in mystery...."

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The Qatar-based satellite TV news network Al Jazeera aired a videotape Monday purporting to show insurgents firing a missile that downed the plane.

Al Jazeera said an insurgent group called the 1920 Revolution Brigades supplied the tape, which showed someone pressing a basic trigger mechanism, then a missile streaking skywards.

As the Telegraph points out, the missile "was not seen hitting an aircraft, nor was there any sign of the aircraft in flight." The tape then cut to a "huge fireball" before showing burning pieces of wreckage spread on the ground.

Al Jazeera spokesman Jihad Ballout defended the broadcast of the tape, saying the network believed it was authentic, wrote The Guardian.

But he admitted there was always a chance the broadcaster had been duped.

'To the best of our knowledge it is genuine, but you can never be 100% certain. It will be left to the military experts to decide whether it is genuine.

We have our own ways of trying to ascertain to the best of our knowledge if it is genuine or not. There is always an element that people [hoaxers] are cleverer than us, but it hasn't happened yet.'

British Defense Secretary Geoff Hoon said: "We are aware of reports that the aircraft may have been shot down but we are not in a position to come to any conclusions until the investigation is complete."

The Times of London reports that " experts were divided over whether the missiles pictured in the video could have brought down a Hercules, and the possibility of an explosion on board remains a major line of inquiry."

Pilot error or engine failure also cannot be ruled out, but US sources confirmed that they believed the aircraft had been shot down by a missile.

There were clear skies over Baghdad on Sunday evening and the flight to Balad would have taken only a few minutes. The Hercules C-130 is a tough four-engine workhorse with an excellent safety record. Even if it had developed engine trouble it could still have flown.

The Times points out that the purported attack comes after last week's mysterious crash of a US Marines Sea Stallion helicopter in which 31 troops died, and said it "raised fears that the insurgents have acquired a deadly new weapon to use against aircraft."

In a separate piece on the Times' website, Tim Ripley, a military aviation correspondent for Jane's Defence Weekly sorts through " clues to fact and fiction on the tape."

Mr. Ripley believes the video footage "undoubtedly shows the remains of a large aircraft – such as a C130 Hercules – that has broken up in mid-air." He has eliminated a few alternative explanations of the plane's crash.

If it had crash-landed and caught fire, wreckage would have been in a discernible pattern. If it had nose-dived out of control, there would have been a large impact crater.

The first segment of the video on Al Jazeera showing the missile's launch could have been edited in, but the latter segments include many signs that the wreckage is from a C-130. ...

As no other aircraft of this size or type have been shot down in Iraq, it is very unlikely that the insurgents would have been able to rehash old footage. The terrain and climate also look like central Iraq in January.

According to The Sun, investigators were focusing on "the three most likely theories."

1. A bomb was smuggled on to the plane. Rebels have breached tight security cordons in Iraq in the past.

2. Hazardous special forces cargo on board the aircraft might have exploded.

3. A highly sophisticated and powerful ground-to-air missile was launched at the plane.

Britain's Chief of the Air Staff, Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup, said late Monday a senior investigator was on his way to Iraq, reports CNN.

"We all want to know what caused [the crash] and we all want to know that as quickly as we can, but we have to find out the facts. We have set up an investigation to look into it."

"We will go through it painstakingly, but this is going to take some time."

Also...
• Fatal bomb blast in Balochistan ( BBC)
• Terror suspect C released ( The Guardian)
• In Iraqi vote, White House sees validation of its course ( The Washington Post)
• America's Jihad ( Al-Ahram, Egypt)

• Feedback appreciated. E-mail Matthew Clark.