How Iraq's election will work

In practice, this will probably lead to a legislature in which both Shiite Arabs and Kurds take seats in proportion beyond their national numbers In the short term, this will enhance Sunni fears about their place in the emerging society. Since the insurgency is led mostly by Sunni Arabs, this could lead to more violence.

Generally, Iraq's elections are not turning on party platforms, but on sectarian and ethnic interests.

But it is unlikely that any of these lists will present a cohesive front once their members are in parliament, since they don't have detailed and shared platforms. A possible exception is the Kurds, who are united by their desire for autonomy from the rest of Iraq and eventual independence.

About 7,000 representatives of Iraqi political parties and nongovernmental organizations have registered to observe voting, and each list has the right to have members present while votes are counted, which is the responsibility of the Independent Electoral Commission. Most foreign observers have decided to watch the election from Amman, Jordan.

Iraqi officials of the Independent Election Commission say they hope all the paper ballots will be counted within 10 days of the election, and say some provisional results could be released after seven days.

Election results could be confirmed by mid-February. If so, the new assembly could sit by the end of that month. Its first order of business will be to form a government and select a president and two vice presidents. This three-member council will then appoint a prime minister, who will appoint the members of his cabinet.

Then the assembly will begin work on a constitution. The current timetable is for a draft constitution to be finished by Aug. 15, and be submitted for a referendum by Oct. 15. If the constitution is passed, new elections for a more permanent government will be held on Dec. 31.

How Iraq's neighbors see the elections is largely related to where they sit. Iran is comfortable with the prospect of a Shiite majority taking power in Iraq and replacing the Baathist regime, with which it fought a ruinous war for much of the 1980s. While most of Iraq's emerging Shiite leaders appear to disagree with Iranian-style Shiite clerical rule, many lived in exile in Iran and have close ties to the country. In Sunni- dominated Jordan and Saudi Arabia, there is some apprehension about the elections and how they will reshape the region's sectarian power balance. Saudi Arabia, which has a large Shiite minority of its own, is particularly concerned about this.

Election results will have less impact on how long US troops stay in Iraq than two other factors: the staying power of the insurgency, and American public opinion. Few analysts expect the election will do much to stem the insurgency in the short term, and with rising American frustration over the situation in Iraq, it is unclear how long the US will sustain its current level of military commitment. US military planners say they expect to have at least 120,000 troops in the country for the next two years.

• Iraq will have about 5,200 polling centers throughout Iraq's 18 governorates. Most Iraqis are just now being told where they will vote. More than 140,000 volunteers will work at these polling places.

• 100,000 police will guard polling places, backed up by about 60,000 Iraqi National Guards and American troops.

• Number of candidates competing for seats on the 275-member national assembly: 7,700.

• The vote will cost more than $150 million; the US, Japan, and the European Union have pledged nearly $120 million.

• 1.2 million of Iraq's 15.5 million eligible voters live abroad.

Source: Independent Electoral Commission, AP, and the US State Department.

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