European carrot, American stick

The diplomatic equivalent of good cop-bad cop continues with Britain, Germany, and France on one side and the US and Israel on the other. Both camps strive to keep Iran from becoming a nuclear power.

Israeli Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz, speaking in London on Wednesday before a meeting with Tony Blair, warned that Iran will reach "the point of no return" within the next 12 months in its "covert attempt to secure a nuclear weapons capability," reports the Guardian.

Following recent statements by US Vice President Dick Cheney, that Israel might launch a pre-emptive strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, as it did against Iraq's nuclear reactor at Osirak in 1981, Gen. Mofaz said Iran was "the main long-term threat to the world." He stressed that "it would not be permitted to build a nuclear bomb," reports the Guardian.

'None of the Western countries can live with Iran having a nuclear capability,' he said. General Mofaz, who has said in the past that Israel has operational plans in place for a strike against Iranian nuclear facilities, refused to rule out military action.

In Washington on Tuesday, German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer "reiterated" after a meeting with then designate and now US Secretary of State, Condoleeza Rice, that "Germany is determined to see the issue of Iran's nuclear activity settled through diplomatic means," writes commentator Peter Philipp in Deutsche Welle.

In Berlin a day earlier, Chancellor Gerhard Schr���der stressed the need for greater international support for Germany, France and Britain's efforts to find a political solution that averts even greater instability in the Middle East.

The urgency of their calls underlines how seriously Berlin is taking the threat of a military strike against Iran.

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That Israeli and US statements against Iran have grown more strident in the last week appears to be a tactic, pundits suggest, aimed more at "pushing Britain, France and Germany into taking a tougher diplomatic approach towards Iran" – like callling for UN sanctions – than being directed at the mullahs in Tehran.

And it appears the bad cop tactic is working, writes the Guardian, citing "a confidential EU document leaked to Reuters and confirmed independently" indicating that Britain, France and Germany have switched to a harder approach towards Iran.

The document states that it would be "unacceptable" for Tehran to keep its uranium enrichment program, "even if, as it claims, it is solely for civil purposes."

Iran says it sees " no major change in US policy towards Tehran" as President George W. Bush begins a second term in office, reports Iran Daily.

Government spokesman Abdollah Ramezanzadeh warned that Iran would use "the language of force" in response to the remarks of President Bush that "he could not rule out using force against Tehran's nuclear program."

'We will use the same language used to threaten us. But if they opt to engage in dialogue without any precondition on an equal footing, we will consider that,' he said.

Reports last week that US special forces were already scouting for nuclear facilities, i.e., targets, has British officials "increasingly concerned that months of patient European-led diplomacy aimed at curbing the ayatollahs' nuclear ambitions may suddenly explode in a torrent of bunker-busting bombs dropped by B-2 stealth bombers," reports the Times of London.

Despite Blair's commitment to the so-called EU-3 Iran initiative launched by Britain, France and Germany, future relations between London and Washington may be "heading for an embarrassing split over American mistrust of Tehran," says the Times.

When challenged on Wednesday by former Labor Minister Michael Meacher to give an "unequivocal and categorical assurance" that Britain would not take part in any attack on Iran, Mr. Blair ducked a direct answer, stating before Commons: "I know of no such contemplation by the United States of America," reports the Guardian. "The Israeli intelligence assessment, shared by the US and Britain, is that Iran could have a bomb by 2007."

Also...
• Israel bars senior BBC producer ( BBC)
• MSPs call on Israel to let Vanunu take up rectorship ( The Herald)
• Defiance that marks out a student icon ( Times of London)
• PM says Jews know `we can trust no one but ourselves' ( Haaretz)
• UN inspects Egyptian nuclear laboratory ( Jerusalem Post)

• Feedback appreciated. E-mail Tom Regan .