Broad backlash to Putin reforms

The antiterror law "doesn't solve any issue" and could "serve as a smoke screen in case of social conflict," says Alexei Kondaurov, a communist Duma deputy and former KGB general. It will "only seem 'democratic' to the people who will be calling [special services] about their suspicions. Regional bosses will always be tempted to introduce this regime in case they face some social tension."

United Russia defends the law as necessary to determine the chain of command in emergencies. "Our constitution stipulates that some rights might be restricted by a federal law to ensure citizens' security," says Vladimir Yuriev, an aide on the Duma's Security Committee. "I think it is better to restrict rights than to let people suffer."

FROM abolishing subsidies to new antiterror rules, however, acceptance in Russia will depend largely on how the law is enforced. The way oil giant Yukos was dismantled, with assets seized by state-run companies in a mysterious bidding procedure last month, has investors - and liberal democrats - worried.

Putin argues that the Yukos case, brought by authorities demanding $27 billion in back taxes, has been conducted in strict accordance to the law. But even the president's own maverick economic adviser, Andrei Illarionov, called the deal a "swindle" that would have "bloody consequences."

Decrying what he called the "amputation" of democratic institutions, Mr. Illarionov - who was demoted earlier this month after making his comments - complained on Ekho Moskvy Radio that unresolved problems "tend to accumulate" and undermine central power.

"If there are no traditional, legal ways to resolve crises, there is no other way out but revolution," Illarionov said. "We will inevitably arrive there, if the trends we have today prevail."

"Illarionov knows very well there were no checks and balances all this [post-Soviet] time. The problem for Putin is to create checks and balances," says Sergei Markov, an analyst close to the Kremlin, and a member of the president's Council for the Development of Civil Society.

"[Russia] has been a mix of democratic and authoritarian trends, and chaos," says Mr. Markov. "The problem is the Kremlin does not care about democracy. It is good we have less anarchy, but the direction should be toward democracy."

The year will be crucial to Putin's rule, because "it will be the beginning of the political struggle of 2008 - who will succeed Putin?" adds Markov.

Pressures are also building abroad. Putin's relations with the US have been strained over the contested elections in Ukraine, where the Kremlin backed Viktor Yanukovich, the losing regime-chosen candidate. Washington has already signaled its "deep concern" about Russia's direction, and that Putin should expect tough talk when he meets President Bush in Brataslava, Slovakia on Feb. 24.

"We thought [Putin] was much smarter, but once you start the [central power] ball rolling, it takes you with it. I don't think there will be an apocalyptic decline in his power," says Shevtsova. "But this will be a year when society will have to realize the limits of this authoritarian model ... pensioners are showing the limits of social policy."

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