World>Terrorism & Security
posted January 14, 2004, updated 11:30 p.m.

CIA think tank: Iraq 'training ground' for terrorists

'2020' report says India, China will be US's economic and political rivals.

By Tom Regan | csmonitor.com

The war in Iraq is becoming a " training ground for terrorists," replacing Afghanistan as the center of that activity, according to a new report, "Mapping the Global Future." The report was prepared by the National Intelligence Center, an "in-house CIA think tank," The Los Angeles Times reports.

Agence-France Presse reports that the NIC believes that the likelihood of conflict between the "great powers" is lower than at any time in the past 100 years. But the factors that have created the threat of international terrorism show no signs of abating.


01/13/05 What comes after end of WMD search? 01/13/05 Pakistan troops guard main gas facility 01/11/05 US senators seek improved ties with Venezuela

Sign up to be notified daily: Find out more.

The Washington Post reports that the "expertise" gained by terrorists in Iraq will affect the world for decades to come. "At the moment," NIC Chairman Robert L. Hutchings said, Iraq "is a magnet for international terrorist activity." And this training will create a generation of "professionalized" terrorists.

Iraq provides terrorists with "a training ground, a recruitment ground, the opportunity for enhancing technical skills," said David B. Low, the national intelligence officer for transnational threats. "There is even, under the best scenario, over time, the likelihood that some of the jihadists who are not killed there will, in a sense, go home, wherever home is, and will therefore disperse to various other countries."

The Washington Times reports that the authors of the '2020' report also believe '"radical Islamic terrorists" will " obtain and use" some form of biological weapon in the next two decades.

"Indeed, the bioterrorist's laboratory could well be the size of a household kitchen, and the weapon built there could be smaller than a toaster," the report said. "Terrorist use of biological agents is therefore likely, and the range of options will grow."

One of the key factors driving some of the spread of terrorism will be the increasing disparities between haves and have-nots in the world, driven by the use of technology. The Boston Globe reports that the NIC predicts the world's economies will grow by 80 percent over the next five years, and that India and China in particular will surpass Europe and become economic and political rivals to the US's position as the world's only superpower.

But poor governance, the absence of freedom, and a lack of technological development, among other factors, could mean that some regions will not reap the benefits of the enormous global changes, potentially resulting in a period of "pervasive insecurity" that will leave no nation unaffected, according to National Intelligence Council analysts, who represent all US intelligence agencies. In particular, international terrorism will continue to pose a major threat, the council said.

The report, says the Globe, outlines four possible scenarios over the next 15 years:

Pax Americana: US predominance survives radical changes and creates a "new, inclusive world order."
A New Caliphate: Radical Islam challenges Western norms and values as "the foundation of the world system."
A Cycle of Fear: Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction leads to "large-scale intrusive security measures" to prevent outbreaks of deadly attacks, "possibly introducing an Orwellian world."
Davos World: India and China become global superpowers along with the US, which has the effect of eroding US economic preeminence.

The report is the third in a series which began in the mid-90s. It took a year to produce, and its authors consulted over 1,000 US and foreign experts in issues like terrorism, security, economics, foreign policy, etc. Its purpose, reports the Post, is to help the White House and lawmakers "prepare for probable challenges by tracing how key trends may develop and influence world events over the next 15 years."

The authors of the report stress that "Mapping the Global Future" is not a series of "predictions" but an invitation to discuss "big picture" issues that will dominate the world over the next decade and a half.