Palestinian election ends, challenges begin

Mahmoud Abbas's election victory has opened a new window for Middle East peacemaking, but the new president's ability to deliver a better life and gains toward statehood for Palestinians hinges largely on Israel and the armed Palestinian factions, analysts say.

Since Mr. Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen, was clear during the campaign about his intention to end the armed intifada and restart peace talks with Israel, his victory is seen as a willingness by the public to give that approach a try.

"Yasser Arafat's reference was that of the negotiator and the fighter at the same time," says Gaza Strip political analyst Hassan al-Kashif. "Abu Mazen's reference will be the political option only."

Nabil Amr, a Palestinian legislator and close ally of Abbas concurs: "He will start immediately to open the political track with the Israelis, and he must reach immediate agreement with Hamas and the other factions to calm the situation, to convince [Israeli Prime Minister Ariel] Sharon to open a new page for the new Palestinian leadership."

Mr. Amr says that for Abbas's way to work, he will have to reduce the suffering of the Palestinians. That, he says, is dependent on Israel lifting checkpoints and curbing military operations, both of which Israel says are needed to stop attacks against Israeli targets. "If Abu Mazen succeeds in getting a real easing of conditions, I'm sure he will create a new atmosphere and people will support his strategy," he says.

Abbas, says Amr, will have another request of Mr. Sharon: Dropping the demand specified in the international peace blueprint, known as the road map, that the Palestinian Authority dismantle "terrorist capabilities and infrastructure" and instead accept a cease-fire by the armed groups. "Sharon must look at the results."

"If Abu Mazen succeeds in reaching a cease-fire and containing all these groups, the Israelis must be satisfied. We will not punish any group; we will contain them by our own way, not Sharon's way," says Amr. Abbas said repeatedly during the campaign that he would persuade, not coerce, the factions into a cease-fire and that civil war was a "red line" he would not cross.

But Sharon made clear Monday that this would not be enough. "The Palestinians are not fighting terror, and while Abbas's declarations in the framework of the election campaign were encouraging, he will be tested by the way he battles terror and acts to dismantle its infrastructure."

Sharon's spokesman, Raanan Gissin, says a cease-fire can bring at best a temporary halt to terrorism. "The cancer will come back. You can't tell Israelis they have to have more people die so that Abbas is able to get along with the factions and establish a cease-fire."

Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office Monday, President Bush said Palestinian leadership must revamp its security forces to "fight off those few who still have the desire to destroy Israel as a part of their philosophy." Mr. Bush also invited Abbas to the White House, an invitation he didn't extend to Mr. Arafat.

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