Asia rises - even as disaster tests its mettle

But it's the no-show of the Taliban at election time that has sparked the most speculation: Is the insurgency petering out?

"Certainly, the fact that the Taliban were not able to disrupt the elections has to be a positive development, but it doesn't mean that the Taliban have completely diminished," says Thomas Muller, who is with the Afghan Rehabilitation and Evaluation Unit, a think tank in Kabul.

One early indicator: This April, Afghan voters will hold parliamentary elections, a potentially volatile process of choosing among local tribal leaders, religious figures, or military commanders in their area. It presents an opportunity to bring disaffected Taliban into the political process, an offer Mr. Karzai is expected to make in the coming months. But the vote also poses another test of Taliban strength, and some observers say they are concerned about potential violence.

"Over the next year, you might see whether the Taliban do not have the capacity to carry out attacks, or whether security for parliamentary elections is so tight they decide to stay home," says Mr. Muller.

- Scott Baldauf, New Delhi

Indian analysts have long considered China to be a far bigger threat than Pakistan to India's emergence as a power. Both countries have enormous populations, nuclear weapons, and industries that compete well in global markets. Both countries aspire to expand their trade and diplomatic relations, especially in Southeast Asia. India and China fought a brief border war in 1962. Since then, relations have been strained by Beijing's economic and political backing for Pakistan.

For now, relations between India and China are warming after compromises in 2003 over territorial disputes. Trade ties have brought India and China closer. Since signing a free-trade agreement in 2000, bilateral trade has increased sevenfold. Yet, despite the positive signs, India's security establishment remains on guard.

What to watch:

• Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao will visit India in March, a moment he describes as the most important on his 2005 calendar. China has expressed hopes of resolving remaining border issues before the visit.

• President Bush has also announced he will visit India this year, a moment that could increase India's regional stature.

- S. B.

Recovery from the tsunami, say experts, could take a decade. 2005 will test the coordination and endurance of the initial rush to help. The outpouring of goodwill has drawn the diverse Southeast Asian region, Western donor nations, and even warring factions closer together. Separatists in Aceh announced a unilateral cease-fire. Tamil Tiger rebel leaders reached out to the Sri Lankan government. And US forces helping with rescue efforts were welcomed in Muslim Indonesia.

How long will the comity last? Already, there is a competitive dynamic among global powers. The US - with the long arm of its military and $350 million commitment of aid - has eclipsed China's initial $62 million outlay. But China may play a longer-range role in the redevelopment.

One early indicator: Local elections in Aceh were scheduled for June. Those could indicate whether Acehnese are more open to candidates pushing autonomy rather than independence. "I would be extremely skeptical that this disaster would lead to a resolution of the conflict. On the other hand, the relief effort ... might have more Acenhese willing to give Jakarta the benefit of the doubt," says Sidney Jones of International Crisis Group.

- Ben Arnoldy

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