Can Latin nations build on 2004 gains?

• According to ECLAC, China's trade volume with Brazil, Argentina, and Chile alone reached $14.6 billion last year. That figure may climb this year. China just signed a deal with Venezuela that will supply China with 120,000 barrels of oil a month. Chinese companies intend to invest $350 million in 15 oil fields in eastern Venezuela and $60 million in natural-gas projects, according to the Associated Press.

• Lower oil prices, which have slid to just above $40 a barrel from an earlier high of $55, could hurt Venezuela, Ecuador, and Mexico.

If the past two years saw the rise of the left in South America, this year could determine what brand of leftism takes hold. On one side is Hugo Chávez, the fiery Venezuelan president who won a controversial recall vote in August. Now he has packed the courts with loyalists, is flush with cash from oil, and has visions of exporting his "revolution for the poor" to the rest of the continent.

On the other is what's been called the "mature" left - represented by leaders like Brazil's Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Argentina's Nestor Kirchner. Both men came to office in 2003 with unvarnished far-left credentials but have governed, to varying degrees, from the center. Which type will win out?

What to watch:

• The region will be in campaign mode this year, with elections slated for Mexico, Peru, and Bolivia in 2006. Bolivia could be a bellweather: Interim President Carlos Mesa is following in the footsteps of Messrs. da Silva and Kirchner, but he has to watch his left flank: Former coca grower Evo Morales is popular among the poor and indigenous.

• Other countries appear to be tearing a page from Mr. Chávez's playbook. The frontrunner in Mexico's 2006 elections, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, relies heavily on his populist and anti-US rhetoric. In Ecuador, the president just fired most of the Supreme Court. And in Nicaragua, observers say a fragile democracy could meet its end in the coming weeks through a nondemocratic uprising.

An estimated 3 million Mexicans tried to sneak across the border into the US last year, according to the State Department. Some 10 million Mexicans are already in the country illegally. President Bush wants to find a way to let them stay through a guest-worker program. Mr. Bush's plan, which he has pledged to push through Congress this year, would allow illegal immigrants to apply for three-year renewable work visas - after which they could petition for permanent legal status. The workers would have access to a database of jobs not filled by US citizens, and they could cross the border legally once they secured work. Mexican President Vicente Fox has applauded the plan.

But Mr. Bush is looking at a hard fight in Congress with representatives of border states - many of whom are from his own party. In late November, conservatives temporarily stalled intelligence-reform legislation, in part because it didn't include certain strict immigration proposals.

What to watch:

In Arizona, where many residents say they're under siege from illegal immigration, voters passed Proposition 200 in November, effectively denying government benefits to illegal aliens. Arizona argued that it could not shoulder free medical care and other services to illegal immigrants, or the added crime. Conservatives hope to put similar initiatives on the ballot in Colorado, Georgia, and California. No dates have been set.

Page: 1 | 2