The future of retirement and the elderly

There will be more intergenerational housing with a focus on community. That would support wellness. The good news is, maybe we will finally have a way to show worth and value for our elders, because in that setting they will continue to be contributors.

Marta Keane is president of The Strategies Group in Earlysville, Va. She is also a healthcare consultant.

By 2020, we'll have people [routinely] living to between 85 and 95 years old. Retirement ages will change. I think there will be three retirement ages: 70, 72, and 75. The amounts people will get paid for Social Security will be proportionate to each age. If you retire at 70, you'll get a smaller percentage. At 72 you'll get more, and at 75 you'll get full retirement.

As people work longer, the younger workers behind them may not get promoted. Starting probably in 10 to 12 years, people are going to phase into retirement. Between ages 70 and 72, you might work 30 hours. From 72 on, you may only put in 20 hours. You [would be able to] phase in your Social Security as well.

By 2020, we're still going to be using our same Social Security system. There may be a means test. If you're making over $200,000 a year, I don't think you're going to get Social Security. For some of those people, it'll affect the age of retirement. They may work a little longer [to compensate for not receiving Social Security].

What the government may do is give these [high-income] people back the money they paid into Social Security, without interest. Once their contribution is used up, their monthly payments will stop.

By 2020, 88 percent of [Americans] will be working in service jobs. Half of those will be knowledge or information workers, such as technology professionals, and the other half will provide services - repair a house, fix a picture frame, sell in a store.

Just 12 percent will be in manufacturing or heavy labor.

Laborers will retire earlier, as they do now. People who have physically demanding work will take the early out. The individuals now who accept Social Security on an earlier basis will probably be the same groups accepting it in 2020.

Working from home takes the pressure off the aggravation of commuting. Older people who have problems getting around can work from home.

Medical costs will continue to rise. They will be probably double or triple the inflation rate for the next 15 years. As people start spending more for that, they have to make a determination: Can I afford to retire if my medical costs keep going up? People may want to work longer to be sure they're covered.

Technology becomes obsolete very quickly. Older workers will have to keep up with the latest information and technology. It's called lifelong learning.

Dr. Marvin Cetron is president of Forecasting International in Falls Church, Va.

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