A time of testing for global democracy

Some observers doubt the Iraqi fervor for democracy. But with bombs blasting and attacks on civilians associated with the elections accelerating, it is often fear that keeps Iraqis from fully embracing the process. Beyond that, the process is complicated by the need to get other aspects of daily life in order. "The Iraqi population hasn't made a mass public show of enthusiasm for democracy, but that shouldn't surprise anyone," says Davenport.

Still, some experts say the beginning of one basic ingredient - an engaged civil society - is developing in Iraq. "You can't set up a mass movement for democracy for people who aren't set on getting there, but I do sense among Iraqis a tremendous determination," says Daniel Serwer, a postconflict governance expert with the US Institute of Peace in Washington.

He recently directed workshops in Iraq on building civic organizations. "Without always knowing exactly what a civil society is, Iraqis are going to great lengths to take part in it," he concludes. "When you see people traveling 11 hours to get through an untold number of checkpoints and danger spots to attend a seminar on conflict management, you realize the desire is there."

Yet even if "elections do not a democracy make," most experts concede they have become increasingly important as signposts in a world tilting towards democratic rule. For the first time, for example, more than half of the world's population can be said to be living under some semblance of democratic governance - with elections a key determining factor.

One problem is that, as elections have become essential to establishing international legitimacy, regimes have become adept at using them to their advantage.

"Certainly one of the lessons of the recent wave of democratization is that you need to have elections, even when they spring from institutions that are less than independent or aren't able to stand up to the ruling powers," says Nicolas Gvosdev, a senior fellow at the Nixon Center in Washington. It's a sign of progress, he says, when open elections are broadly recognized as "necessary for leadership to be valid."

More problematic is that many regimes - notably in the Middle East - are turning to elections as a way to legitimize power, rather than as an element in a more general expansion of freedoms. That pattern may be followed in Saudi Arabia, for example, where upcoming local elections won't necessarily mean an expansion of democratic rights or represent any real check on the power of the regime. But it may be broken by the Palestinian Authority, some experts say, where already next month's presidential election is showing signs of breaking down some of the underpinnings of an authoritative regime.

"Over all in the Middle East we'll see a willingness to play with reforms, largely out of necessity, but which will stop when it becomes a challenge to the prerogatives" of the ruling elites, Gvosdev says.

A key question then becomes consolidation of what has begun - and that is where such elements as time, grass-roots fervor, and institutional development, come in. Finding that "we've become pretty good at democratic breakthroughs, our challenge now is consolidation," Gvosdev says he sees Mexico and its 2006 presidential election as one of the next tests.

In Iraq key tests will come as an elected parliament deals with writing a national constitution and sharing power among ethnic and sectarian groups. "A lot of places aren't out of the woods yet," Serwer says. "But the trends we see in the world tell us it is possible to get there."

Afghan presidential elections Oct. 9, 2004

Ukrainian presidential election (repeat runoff) Dec. 26, 2004

Palestinian Authority presidential election Jan. 9, 2005

IraqI elections Jan. 30, 2005

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