Even before the 109th Congress convenes, the battle over judicial nominations is shaping up as the defining factor of the session.

Tax cuts and Social Security reform may top President Bush's ambitious to-do list. But with the prospect that Mr. Bush may appoint one or more justices to the Supreme Court, both Republicans and Democrats are girding for an epic confrontation over the judiciary and its broad impact on American life.

Pressed by the most powerful interests in their respective party bases, both sides are already drawing lines in the sand. In speeches and postelection appearances, leaders are floating views on everything from who would be a fit nominee for chief justice to how Senate rules can be changed to limit the minority's power to block a nomination.

"It's a storm warning," says Ross Baker, a political scientist at Rutgers University in New Jersey. In his view, Republicans are threatening tough rule changes as a negotiating ploy. "But the consequences would quickly spread beyond judicial nominations to all the things the president wants to get through, such as Social Security, tax reform, tort reform, and the energy bill."

If Democrats try to filibuster just one more judicial nomination - 10 of 229 Bush nominees were blocked in the 108th Congress - Senate majority leader Bill Frist says he may resort to the "nuclear option," that is, rewriting Senate rules to shut off debate with a simple majority instead of the current 60 votes. If he tries it, Democrats say they could effectively shut down the Senate.

Democrats and civil libertarians worry that if courts tilt further right, consequences could range from a rollback of abortion rights to undermining New Deal bulwarks.

For conservative activists, the stakes are also high. The reason for their intensity is fear that their social revolution may be tapped out unless they can tip the balance in the courts by getting more conservative judges on the bench.

"Social conservatives realize we've accomplished what we can in the legislative arena, and we keep losing in the courts," says Richard Lessner, executive director of the American Conservative Union.

"Time after time, we've seen the same pattern: Any effort to place even reasonable limits on abortion have been pretty much obstructed by the courts. We've played out that line of attack as long as we can. Now the battle is in the courts," he adds. "The Democrats realize this president could remake the Supreme Court."

Exhibit A for social conservatives is the fate of efforts to ban a late-term procedure known as "partial-birth abortion." Within two days of President Bush's signing the Partial-Birth Abortion Ban Act of 2003, federal courts in three states blocked its enforcement. Appeals are pending in Nebraska, California, and New York. Since 1995, at least 31 states have enacted laws banning partial-birth abortions, according to the Congressional Research Service. Many have not taken effect because of injunctions in the courts.

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