Bush's goals still big, bold

The question is whether, by aiming high, Bush has set himself up for historic achievements - or for a fall. For the first time, perhaps, George W. Bush is not being underestimated. And the friction he has faced with certain factions in the current lame-duck Congress in trying to pass intelligence reform may be a sign that the larger Republican majorities to come could make his life more difficult rather than easier.

"I think there's a level of hubris in the White House right now about what the electorate said and what they can accomplish that's well beyond reality," says Paul Light, a professor of public service at New York University, who notes that the Bush White House has little bench strength on economic policy amid reports that the Treasury secretary will leave soon.

"I'll tell you, the risks associated with starting tax reform without having the political muscle to finish it are quite high," says Professor Light. "Once you open the tax code, you can get buying and selling going on there that makes the commodities floor on pork bellies look like child's play."

So far, Bush has not put forth any specifics on what he intends for either Social Security or tax reform. During his first term, Bush demonstrated varying styles on major initiatives: Early on, with education reform, his White House worked closely with Congress - including Democrats - to craft legislation. Later, when a prescription-drug plan for Medicare was on the table, and after relations with Democrats had soured, Bush presented broad ideas and let congressional Republicans write the details. Controversies over how that was achieved, and the legislation's high price tag, continue today.

But it remains unclear how Bush will work with the new Congress. At a GOP congressional retreat this week, attended by White House officials, that was no doubt on the table.

As a prelude to a tax-reform proposal, Bush has announced that he will appoint a commission to study the matter, with its members named by the end of the year. Some analysts see this as a classic delay tactic, and a sign that tax reform won't happen during Bush's second term. Others see a commission as a useful tool that can insulate the president on a difficult issue.

One possibility is that Bush is setting an agenda that could well outlast his time in office - a theory that fits in with political adviser Karl Rove's long-term goal of Republican political domination for the next generation.

Bill Frenzel, a scholar at the Brookings Institution and former Republican congressman from Minnesota, sees Bush's bold agenda challenging Congress in ways it's not used to being challenged -- and says Bush could be in for a surprise.

"He's going to find out, as [Presidents] Carter and Clinton did, that having your pals on Capitol Hill does not make the competition any less intense," says Mr. Frenzel. "He's already a lame duck, and each day the duck gets lamer."

Still, he adds, Social Security reform is "doable." As for tax reform, "the problem is it requires a legislature and executive that really wants to cooperate, and it requires the cooperation of both parties or at least traditionally has.

"That's going to be extremely difficult. They have quite different notions of what a good tax reform is. Of course, the tool that the president has is the bully pulpit, and if he can get people thinking about tax reform and Social Security reform, it might work out just fine."

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