Will nuclear bargain with Iran work?
A European deal with Iran is approved, but some see its demands as too ambiguous.
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The US had wanted to take the issue of Iran to the United Nations Security Council to seek sanctions as a tougher means of stopping its nuclear program. But the three European countries - two of whom (Britain and France) are permanent members of the Security Council - agreed not to support Washington's efforts in exchange for the suspension of enrichment work.
In addition, the Europeans will begin negotiating with Iran within the next few weeks for the economic and political rewards that are to be part of Iran's suspension agreement.
Some analysts already see the harbinger of a breakdown in the agreement: The Europeans and Iranians are giving conflicting assessments of what the incentives should include and how soon the rewards should begin. European officials speak of a "sustained" and verified suspension before serious talks begin, while the Iranians have spoken of a "brief" suspension to test international seriousness.
US officials will be watching Iran's compliance with the accord as well as European progress on keeping the suspension intact while it negotiates. They may plan to keep up the rhetorical heat until the next planned meeting of IAEA governing countries in March, which would provide the venue for a public airing of how yesterday's deal is faring.
"The US will continue to make public statements of skepticism, of suspicions of secret facilities. They'll make noise to keep the pressure on," says Mr. Kerr. But it will be "wait-and-see" mode until March, he says - unless the deal shows signs of unraveling before then, "in which case they'll be back to demands to get this to the Security Council."
Some observers have seen the international wrangling over Iran as an application of the classic "good cop-bad cop" strategy, with the Europeans offering the carrots and encouraging words, while the US holds up the stick.
But in another sense, the Iran saga offers a window into a kind of international competition between two visions for dealing with "rogue" nations: the multilateral, diplomatic route favored by Europe, and the more muscular, aggressive road favored by the US, particularly under the Bush administration.
Part of the impetus for continuing pressure from the US comes from Congress, where efforts are building to make "regime change" in Iran official US policy.
At the same time, Iranian leaders are under intense domestic pressure to maintain the country's nuclear ambitions and to stand up to international pressures. That was evident yesterday when demonstrators in Tehran burned a British flag and tried to storm the gates of the British Embassy.
Acknowledging the Iranian public's strong identification with the nuclear program, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was quoted on state television saying, "Iran will never halt its nuclear activities under any circumstances, and this is our red line."
And in words suggesting the world has not heard the end of Iran's nuclear ambitions, government spokesman Andollah Ramazanzadeh was quoted by Reuters announcing at a weekly press conference: "We are not fully satisfied with the resolution ... but for the time being it was [beneficial] for Iran to accept it."
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