Push to limit Ivory Coast conflict

To the casual observer, this week's unrest in Ivory Coast seems like a prelude to another in a blur of African wars.

Troubled West Africa, home to brittle countries like Sierra Leone and Liberia, has been embroiled in conflict for much of the past decade. Fighting in Ivory Coast, which is about the size of New Mexico, could suck its neighbors into a conflagration akin to the 1998-2003 "world war" in Congo, which involved 6 nations and claimed 3 million lives.

As well, Ivory Coast, one of Africa's 10 biggest economies and the world's largest exporter of cocoa, is an economic anchor in the region. Fighting there could have a devastating financial ripple effect in the surrounding countries.

So many African and global players are desperate to avoid fresh fighting, and the early signs are that they might succeed.

But it will be a major challenge. Even just one week of unrest in Ivory Coast sparked the flight of hundreds of French and other expatriates. It also sent more than 5,000 Ivorian refugees scurrying to nearby Liberia and Ghana and temporarily shut down cocoa exports. Because Ivory Coast produces about 40 percent of the world's cocoa, global prices jumped to near-record highs.

In response, the continent's highest-profile statesman, South African President Thabo Mbeki, jetted to Ivory Coast Tuesday to push for peace talks, which are set for today in South Africa. The United Nations Security Council has considered sanctions. These and other pressures could help avert war.

"There's a very good basis for some sort of resolution to this," says Richard Cornwell, an analyst at the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria, South Africa.

It all began last weekend when Ivorian government planes crossed the internationally monitored "confidence zone" that has divided the nation into northern and southern halves since the signing of a 2002 peace accord. The planes bombed rebel positions and a military outpost belonging to former colonial power, France. The attack killed nine Frenchmen and one American.

On French President Jacques Chirac's orders, French planes retaliated, destroying virtually all of Ivory Coast's modest air force. That stoked long-simmering anti-French sentiments in the main city, Abidjan. Riots broke out. French expatriates were attacked, as were whites of other nationalities. Soon France, Britain, the US, Canada, Spain, and other nations were scrambling to get their nationals out.

By yesterday, Abidjan's streets were returning to normal - with a few shops opening and taxis running. And one thing was clear: France is no longer seen as an impartial broker in the conflict between rebels and the government, which began after a failed 2002 coup. France arranged the 2002 peace deal, but Ivorian President Laurent Gbagbo's supporters now see it as favoring rebels. Anti-French sentiment runs strong.

At the university hospital in Abidjan's upmarket Cocody district, bandages on student Yeo Yaya's wrist and arm cover what he says are bullet wounds from when French soldiers fired on a crowd of thousands of protesters this week. "[Is] Ivory Coast a French colony?" he says. "We ask: What do they want?"

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