Palestinian unrest about Arafat puts Lebanon on alert

On Sunday, Hizbullah unveiled its latest means of rattling the Israelis by dispatching a reconnaissance drone across the border for the first time.

The drone, named Mirsad-1 (Arabic for "observer"), flew over several Israeli settlements, reaching Nahariya, five miles south of the border, before returning.

It was the first hostile penetration of Israeli airspace from Lebanon since 1987, when a Palestinian militant crossed the border by hang glider, landed outside a military base and shot dead six Israeli soldiers before being gunned down himself. Hizbullah said the drone was a response to Israel's repeated violations of Lebanese airspace, and pledged more flights.

"If Hizbullah sent a drone across the fence and brought it back again that will sting the Israelis no end," says a military attaché in Beirut.

In Israel, hard questions were asked yesterday about how the drone could reach as far as Nahariya without being spotted and shot down.

"A good number of senior Israel Defense Forces officers should be downright embarrassed by the Hizbullah drone that entered Israel's airspace in the western Galilee," wrote Amir Oren in Israel's English-language daily, Haaretz.

Ironically, however, if Palestinian militants do attempt to reach the border to launch attacks against Israel, the Israelis may find that they have an inadvertent ally in Hizbullah.

The Lebanese group is careful to protect its tactical control over the border, knowing that attacks by unauthorized parties can jeopardize the delicate balance between it and the Israeli military.

That balance has grown more fragile lately with Hizbullah, the Lebanese government, and Syria, which dominates its tiny neighbor, coming under intense pressure from the international community.

In September, the UN Security Council passed a resolution calling for Syria to cease interfering in the affairs of Lebanon, withdraw its estimated 14,000 troops, and dismantle Hizbullah and all Palestinian militant groups.

"Given the political environment, a Katyusha attack into Israel affects all three audiences - Syria, Hizbullah, and the Lebanese government," says Timur Goksel, a former senior adviser to the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon. "It's very natural that Hizbullah would be against attacks by Palestinians, especially when firing single Katyusha rockets into Israel has no military or tactical value at all."

Bitter enemies they may be, but Hizbullah and Israel understand and observe the rules of the game that govern clashes along the border. That helps explain why Israel accepted that Palestinian militants were probably behind the recent rocket firing and chose not to blame Hizbullah.

"Hizbullah and Israel treat each other with silk gloves. It is a conflict that can be managed if there is a political will," the senior security source says. "The Palestinians, however, are volatile and pose a threat to everyone."

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