Iran, EU close to nuclear deal?
Pressure for agreement looms ahead of key Nov. 25 meeting.
"A top Iranian regime official has warned Britain, France, and Germany that the Islamic Republic
could harden its stance if the [European Union] failed to show flexibility in the stalled nuclear negotiations," reports the German broadcasting service
Deutsche Welle.
The former president and influential spokesman Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani "criticized the 'preliminary agreement' reached Sunday between Iran and the European Union over Tehran's nuclear program." The deal involves economic and political benefits in return for a freeze on uranium enrichment.
EU Business reports that the accord is "centered on demands that Iran
maintain and widen a suspension of its sensitive uranium enrichment activities or else risk being referred by the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), to the UN Security Council for possible sanctions." It also "still contains several sticking points including the length and extent of any halt on fuel cycle work," reports
EU Business. More specific details have not yet been made public.
The Associated Press reports that "Iran is
expected to announce this week a full suspension of activities that can be used to make nuclear arms." The deal still could collapse if Iranian hardliners resist cooperation with the Europeans, notes
AP. Iran, a signatory of the UN non-proliferation treaty, has repeatedly denied that its nuclear program is geared toward weaponization.
But some diplomats believe the deal won't work unless Washington is
directly involved, reports
Reuters. "In the long run, I don't think this deal can work without the US buying into it," David Albright, a former UN weapons inspector and head of the Institute for Science and International Security think-tank, told
Reuters.
The IAEA is
cautiously optimistic about the deal, reports
Radio Free Europe.
But the US remains skeptical. "Ultimately it's what Iran does that matters, not just what they might agree to," State Department spokesman Richard Boucher told reporters in Washington. "Ultimately, we shall see not only if Iran and the Europeans are able to reach agreement on how Iran can comply with the board's requirements, but whether the IAEA was able to verify that and whether the IAEA is able to report that to the board," he added.
According to
Deutsche Welle, "several diplomats have also said Iran might consider suspending enrichment now to avoid the Security Council and then pick a fight with the EU after the Nov. 25 deadline has passed."
A
Washington Post editorial criticizes the "weakness of [the Bush administration's] policy toward Iran, which has progressed steadily toward acquiring nuclear weapons during the past four years" and "its inability to work with major European allies such as France and Germany." The
Post hopes for "
a fresh start by President Bush on both those fronts."
Success in preventing an Iranian bomb consequently depends on the forging of a cohesive Western strategy founded on a restored US relationship with Germany and France. ... It may be a distasteful course, but it is preferable to doing nothing while a rogue state goes nuclear."
An opinion piece by Iran's ambassador and permanent representative to the UN, Javad Zarif, lists reasons why the US approach has been misguided. In doing so, he writes that US officials' belief that Iran is producing nuclear weapons in the guise of a peaceful program is based on two "
erroneous assumptions."
The first is that Iran has vast oil and gas resources and therefore does not need nuclear energy. Although it is true that Iran is rich in oil and gas, these resources are finite and, given the pace of Iran's economic development, they will be depleted within two to five decades. Further, it is much more economically advantageous for Iran to export these resources than to burn them; they are the major source of our hard currency. Thus diversification – including the development of nuclear energy – is the only sound and responsible strategy for Iran. ...
The second assumption is that because Iran is surrounded by nuclear powers in all directions – the United States, Russia, Pakistan, and Israel – any sound Iranian strategists must be seeking to develop a nuclear deterrent capability for Iran as well. ... In fact, the predominant view among Iranian decision-makers is that possession or pursuit of nuclear weapons would only undermine Iranian security. ...
In sum, a costly nuclear-weapon option would reduce Iran's regional influence and increase its global vulnerabilities without providing any credible deterrence.
He ends the piece by saying:
... dialogue is the only approach that can allay the concerns of all. If history and Iranian political psychology are any guide, pressure, intimidation and attempts to deprive Iran of its rights can only backfire. Amid talk of a possible deal comes a report from
Knight-Ridder that there is
increased "chatter" in Washington of an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.
Counterterror specialists look for "chatter" in Islamic extremist circles preceding an attack. There is a lot of chatter going on today in Washington - only this time, it is about an American attack on Iran. In seminars and hallways, there is eager anticipation of an airstrike against Iran's nuclear facilities. Sure, the talk goes, we may not get all those buried nuclear labs. But a few waves of cruise missiles and bombers will set Iran's program back several years, enough time to pursue regime change in Tehran. Iran repeated Monday that it would
strike back if its nuclear sites were hit, reports Bahrain's
Gulf Daily News. "If Israel or any other country attacks any site in Iran, we know no limits to threaten their interests," Deputy Revolutionary Guards Commander Mohammad-Baqer Zolqadr said. "That means anywhere in the world, within their borders or outside it," he said on the sidelines of an anti-US conference in Tehran.
"Iranian officials have also warned they can strike back at Israel with its medium-range Shahab-3 missile, which can also hit US military bases in the Gulf," notes the
Gulf Daily News.
Also...
•
Iran affirms ability to mass produce missiles (
The Jerusalem Post)
•
W.'s UN Mandate (
National Review Online)
•
Urban warfare deals harsh challenge to troops (
The New York Times)
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