Arizona as the new canvas for exurban mega growth

In the shady Old Town of this Sonoran Desert outpost, visitors might be hard pressed to identify which country - and which decade - they are in: carnecerias (meat shops), stone churches, radiator shops, and street-front movie theaters abound.

Blocks away, on main drags leading north to Phoenix and south to Tucson, chock-a-block development imprints the indelible stamp of Anywhere, USA, 2004: gated communities, cookie-cutter houses, and strip malls.

Surrounded by vast stretches of scrub desert and dusty escarpments, this small town and five others like it in Pinal County are among the reasons why Arizona is home to a population surge second only to Nevada's in percentage growth. Well beyond the sprawling suburbs - and even exurbs - of distant cities, the lure of inexpensive homes, desert views, and dry weather are enticing new families, retirees, and nonresident investors to the state's farthest outreaches.

"Pinal County has become the Orange County of Arizona," says Rita Maguire, president of ThinkAZ, a public policy think tank in Phoenix.

California's giant, once-rural county south of Los Angeles became a national phenomenon in the mid-'60s as it blossomed from orange groves into one of America's largest bedroom communities in little more than a decade.

Since so much of Pinal County is part of an Indian reservation, some demographers here say its growth may never equal the explosive boom of California. But most agree the comparison fits as Arizona's own kind of nascent "post-suburbia" America - a patchwork of communities lacking an urban core.

And the millions of newcomers pouring in here each year seeking lower-cost homes and living costs may be remaking the rural face of the state for good. After five decades of steady growth - 40 percent over the past decade alone - projections show Arizona will be home to 8.2 million by 2020, the nation's 10th largest.

"The story of Arizona growth is that for as fast and far as it has come, what is about to happen will make the past look slow by comparison," says Rob Melnick, director of the Morrison Institute for Public Policy at Arizona State University. Besides Pinal County, areas in southeast Arizona - and to the north, east, and west of Phoenix - also show signs of explosive growth.

The influx in Pinal County is part of a larger phenomenon that is producing housing and new population - but not employment - in several state regions. Statewide, developments have been chewing up open-range land, farms, and ranches at the rate of about an acre an hour over the past several years.

Largely unconnected to the local community by employment, the new buyers are from every corner the union. Besides being attracted to quieter, hassle-free living on the cheap, they are interested in outdoor recreation - including team sports, golf, swimming, hiking, hunting, and car racing. They also like the safety - no urban gangs, terror threats, earthquakes, or hurricanes.

Some analysts say the phenomenon reflects the graying of America.

"People are looking for the good life where land is dirt cheap," says Suzanne Bott, at the Sonoran Institute, a research group that tries to influence land-use decisions throughout Western North America. "As the baby boomers age, they are looking for a healthier lifestyle and ... because this is the American West, they feel this is the place to come for autonomy in 360 days of sunshine each year."

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