World faces a Mideast minus Arafat

In the view of Palestinian analyst Said Ghazali, whether a successor will succeed will depend largely on Israeli policies. "The Palestinians and Israelis are at a crossroads. Going back to peace talks is possible if it is encouraged by Israel and the US," he says.

To facilitate the stability of any succession, he says, Israel should stop military incursions in Palestinian areas and assassinations of Palestinian militants and ease its regimen of strictures of movement in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. "But is Israel willing to do this?" he asks.

Legally, there is a procedure for succession. The speaker of the parliament, Rawhi Fatouh, is to take over as president of the Palestinian Authority for a period of 60 days during which elections are to be held. In practice, however, elections might not be held because Israel has thus far opposed them. Moreover, Mr. Fatouh is seen as playing no more than a symbolic role because he lacks a political base and is a virtual unknown. The two most prominent figures for taking on powers now are Mr. Abbas, the former prime minister and secretary general of the PLO executive committee, and Mr. Qurei, the current prime minister.

If Abbas becomes the prime minister, he will prove no more flexible than Arafat in the short term, Mr. Ghazali says. "While he establishes himself, he does not want to look like he is making compromises. If they want a collaborator, Abbas is not the right guy."

In Ghazali's view, the United States was partly responsible for the collapse of the road map in 2003 because it did not press Israel to take the above steps and to make a meaningful release of Palestinian prisoners. "Bush forgot about his own road map. Maybe the death of Arafat will serve as an alarm clock for him," he says. "I don't think he will be willing to pressure Israel because he has never done so. The pressure will be on the Palestinians."

The Bush administration had already ceased dealing with Arafat and had demanded new Palestinian leadership - a demand the Palestinians had acknowledged by creating the post of prime minister - so Arafat's absence could be the opportunity for the Bush administration to get back into the Israeli-Palestinian process.

Some analysts, like Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, say they expect a "messy period" of infighting among Palestinians that won't be conducive to international action.

But others see an opportunity for Bush to seize the moment to extend his call for democracy in the Middle East to the Palestinian arena. Stephen Cohen, national scholar at the Israel Policy Forum in New York, says Bush should step forward and press for democratic elections to deliver new leadership for Gaza, where Israel is committed to a pullout.

"That would deliver a leadership that is acceptable to the US, Israel, and the Palestinians, and could get the president back into the process recognized by the road map," Mr. Cohen says.

At a press conference Thursday, Mr. Bush referred to a June 2002 Rose Garden speech in which he called for a Palestinian state side by side with Israel. Cohen says that Bush now has before him the way to the first part of what he called for in that speech - new Palestinian leadership. So, he says, he should now seize the moment to follow through on the "second part of the speech," which called for international action with both Israelis and Palestinians to arrive at a peace settlement and a Palestinian state.

• Howard LaFranchi contributed to this report from Washington.

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