After the thrill of victory fades and the inaugural balls have ended, the winner of Tuesday's election may face an unpleasant reality: Winning was the easy part. Governing the nation in the wake of such a close and hard-fought campaign could be an extraordinarily difficult task.

That's due to the nature of both US problems and politics. It's hard enough to deal with Iraq and terrorism - not to mention the future of healthcare and Social Security. It's that much harder to do so at a time of record deficits, with a Congress that seems to grow more polarized by the day.

This doesn't mean the presidency has been rendered powerless. If nothing else, the occupant of the Oval Office will make world-shaping military and foreign policy decisions from 2005 through 2008.

It does mean that George Bush or John Kerry will probably have to be flexible in his domestic agenda, while steering a careful course between partisanship and accommodation.

"Whoever wins, I don't think they're in for a happy couple of years," says Gary Jacobson, a political scientist at the University of California, San Diego.

In terms of governance, perhaps the most salient fact the president will face is this: It isn't the Era of Good Feeling. During that period of the early 19th century, US politicians generally felt secure from foreign problems and optimistic about economic development. Tuesday might better be called the Era of Raw Emotions. The two great parties that govern America are evenly balanced, and resort to increasingly negative and desperate measures to win their quadrennial tugs of war.

In this climate Tuesday's losing side is likely to be sullen at best, and possibly litigious. It's hard to overstate the personal enmity that boils through today's politics - witness Vice President Dick Cheney's obscenity-laced encounter with Sen. Patrick Leahy (D) of Vermont earlier this year.

And neither Senator Kerry nor President Bush, if victorious, will face a compliant Congress. It's unlikely that the Democrats will win back control of both the House and Senate. And for the GOP, the narrowness of the partisan split in the Senate means that even if Republicans retain their majority there, it won't be filibuster-proof.

In a way, the situation could be a return to the future. Kerry would face a government divided along lines similar to those experienced by Bill Clinton in his second term. Bush would be in pretty much the same position he was in following 2000.

In terms of Washington's power lineup "we have experienced the next administration already," says Gary Jacobson of the University of California, San Diego.

If past is prologue, President Kerry might end up emulating Clinton in his last four years - zigging toward the other party on big issues, while looking for ways to make small progress on issues important to his base. One implication of this is that getting his healthcare proposal through Congress in anything close to its original form would be a very tough slog.

Page: 1 | 2