Washington among tight governor's races

While President Bush and Senator Kerry battle it out in a down-to-the-wire fight for the White House, governors and would-be governors are neck and neck as well.

Incumbents have withdrawn or been bounced by their parties when it became obvious they'd lost party support. Other incumbents are having to scramble like challengers. Contestants with politically powerful family names or high-level national experience are part of the mix.

Of the 11 gubernatorial races this year, nonpartisan political analyst Charles Cook calls six of them tossups. Four of those six (Missouri, Montana, Utah, and Washington) are in states with no incumbent running - always a formula for volatility, especially at a time when Americans are split over issues such as war and terrorism and yearn for stability.

If the economy is a pivotal issue in the presidential race, it's even more so for those seeking to become their states' chief executives. "Everyone's running on jobs, everyone's running on the economy," says Cathy Allen, a political consultant in Seattle.

That's a big factor here in Washington State, where unemployment remains above the national average, thanks to things like the dotcom bust and Boeing's decision to move its corporate headquarters out of state.

Republican Dino Rossi, a realtor and former state senator, vows to reduce government regulation and invest in economic development. After nearly 20 years without a Republican governor, he says, it's time for a change.

Democrat Christine Gregoire has a trickier challenge: She can't run on the banner of change, following the term of retiring incumbent Gary Locke (a popular moderate Democrat), and as state attorney general for the past 12 years she's no outsider.

Still, the state's economy is recovering. And like most states with close races, other factors may be more important.

Mr. Rossi portrays himself as a moderate; his opponents emphasize his past pronouncements on hot-button social issues such as abortion, same-sex marriage, and creationism. Ms. Gregoire reminds voters that she negotiated the 46-state, $206 billion settlement with the tobacco industry, which brought her state $45 billion; others point to million-dollar mistakes she acknowledges having been responsible for as attorney general.

In the presidential contest, the Bush-Cheney campaign seems to have conceded the race for Washington State's 11 electoral votes. The GOP has diverted its efforts to states considered to be in play - like nearby Oregon.

At the same time, the Evergreen State is more obviously than ever one of the most politically progressive parts of the country. And like other parts of the country, the presidential race has consequences for statewide races - if only because it affects voter registration and turnout.

Until recently when Washington state primaries began requiring voters to declare a party preference, half the voters here identified themselves as independents. Now, half say they're Democrats - markedly higher than the country as a whole. Some 350,000 new voters have been registered here in recent months, and state officials predict as many as 84 percent of those eligible will vote.

John Kerry leads George Bush by 14 percentage points here, reflecting the fact that it's a fairly blue state. Yet political wizard Charles Cook says Washington's gubernatorial race is too close to call. And like the presidential race, much of the campaigning has been aggressive. That includes the effort by US Rep. George Nethercutt (R) to oust two-term US Sen. Patty Murray (D).

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