A month of mini 'October surprises'

At this point, analysts say, if Mr. Bin Laden were captured, it might actually work against Bush. It would look too much as if the capture had been timed for election eve - and if so, why hadn't the Al Qaeda leader been captured or killed sooner, given the threat to America he continues to pose?

An election-eve terrorist attack, which US security officials have long warned of, is a possibility so terrible to contemplate that most politicians shy away from it. And the question of who would be helped - Bush or Kerry - seems so craven as to be almost unmentionable as well.

At this point, "that's one for metaphysicians, not for pundits," says Ross Baker, a political scientist at Rutgers University in New Jersey. "What it comes down to is this: Is [an attack] happening because this is the nature of the war we are in and it vindicates what the president has been saying? Or does it say, how did he let this happen again? That's something nobody can answer."

Professor Baker suggests that if Margaret Hassan, the kidnapped chief of CARE International in Iraq, is executed, that could be a decisive factor for Bush, since it reminds voters of the nature of America's enemies - and of his determination to track them down.

But on a much more mundane note, Baker prefers to consider what he used to think would be this election's October surprise: a decision by independent candidate Ralph Nader to drop out of the race. Even though Mr. Nader is polling only 1 to 3 percent in national polls, in such a close race, his numbers in battleground states where his name appears on the ballot still make the Kerry team nervous. Now, Nader seems committed to his candidacy for the duration.

Four years ago, the late-breaking news that might have swayed votes was the revelation - five days before Election Day - that Bush had been arrested for drunk driving in 1976. Some analysts believe that story might have cost Bush the popular vote, particularly by discouraging some evangelical Christians from turning out to vote. Bush adviser Karl Rove often speaks of 4 million evangelicals who didn't turn out in 2000, votes he hopes to capture in 2004.

In the 1980 case, a congressional task force later concluded that Reagan did not arrange a deal to release the hostages. The theory at the time was that the Republicans were concerned that President Jimmy Carter, whose administration was already negotiating for the hostages' release, would get them out just before the election.

In the end, there was another October surprise of sorts that may have tilted the race. The one and only presidential debate between Reagan and President Carter was held Oct. 28, 1980, mere days before the election. Reagan used the spotlight to his advantage - and turned a neck-and-neck race into a comfortable victory over the incumbent.

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