N. Korea refugees get US nod

Mr. Lee (not his real name), a defector who left North Korea in 2000, says that during the famine, "one of the only places to get food was the farmers' market, which became a de facto black market. Local police would chase people away but they would just keep coming back. Later, the government built a fence around the market and charged an entrance fee."

Mrs. Pak and Mr. Lee are both Japanese-born ethnic Koreans. Like many others of their generation, their families moved to North Korea during the 1960s to help it build what was being touted as a "communist paradise." For these two at least, the experience ended in disillusionment.

But some observers say that if Kim Jung Il could outlast the worst of the famine, he could also weather the flight of more refugees. Still, a substantial increase in those fleeing to China could upset Kim's relationship with Beijing.

Hiroshi Kato of Life Funds for North Korean Refugees, says that the law may cause an increase in defectors, though it "will not happen automatically."

He says the Chinese have been concerned about an unstable North. This month, China, which reportedly has thousands of troops along its border with North Korea, moved elite troops to the border, though China has said they are there to help with a building project.

"They are preparing for the possibility of a massive outflow of refugees into China if North Korea were to collapse," he says.

Beijing wants to avoid a collapse at all costs. Concerns about the North's nuclear program are a key concern, as is the humanitarian crisis that an inpouring of destitute refugees would present. Beyond that, says Mr. Armstrong, "China's policy [of repatriating North Korean migrants] is a result of Beijing's desire to appear in control [of its own borders]. North Korean migrants are an embarrassment to China," he says.

The new law may cause China even further chagrin. Experts say it will enable US embassies in China to treat asylum cases less discreetly than before.

Mr. Kato says the attention the new US law could garner could place China squarely in the international hot seat.

"The North Korean Human Rights Act will force China to (eventually) change its policy of repatriating North Korean refugees," says Kato. "In turn, China will pressure North Korea to take measures to prevent [people] from crossing the border."

Kato believes that Chinese pressure on North Korea to stem the flow of migration could spur North Korea either to clamp down brutally on border traffic or continue with very modest economic reforms.

The granting of asylum in the US could become a problem for South Korea as well. In recent years, South Korea has been reluctant to encourage defection. It has stressed engagement and diplomacy, partly out of concerns that a more aggressive approach could trigger a devastating war or a costly implosion of Kim's regime.

• This report used material from Reuters.

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