Karzai, a man with no party

He and other observers predict that many current politicians will naturally gravitate toward two moderate political parties. One would be a secular pro- business party, led by Karzai and his cadre. The other would be a moderate Islamist party, led in all likelihood by Yunus Qanooni, who came in a distant second in this month's historic vote.

Such an Islamist party, in order to reach a majority of Afghan voters, would have to be more moderate than the Taliban while still promising to act within the guidelines of sharia, or Islamic law.

"If you have a moderate Islamist party and a moderate secular party, then you have a situation where if the pendulum swings, it won't knock the clock off the wall," says Garner.

There are substantial obstacles to a mature two-party system, at least in the short term.

Afghanistan's foreign neighbors, such as Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan have long attempted to influence Afghan policy by stirring up separatist movements among Afghanistan's Hazara, Pashtun, Tajik, and Uzbek ethnic groups. These interest groups remain armed and still command followings.

It may also prove difficult for Afghan leaders to bury the hatchet.

"For the foreseeable future, [politics] will be marred by personal antipathy," says Marc Sageman, a former CIA officer based in Pakistan and author of the book, "Understanding Terror Networks." "I simply can't imagine [former President Burhanuddin] Rabbani and [Islamist leader Abdurrab Rasool] Sayyaf ever trusting each other, except for external consumption. These guys have been at it for 25 years and are still going strong."

In the meantime, all talk of democracy and nation-building is an academic exercise, Mr. Sageman says, until Afghanistan's warlords are disarmed.

"I just don't see Afghans giving up their weapons," Sageman says. "It's ingrained in their concept of manhood. What I see is that these weapons might become obsolete with time, and the central government forces will get better, more modern weapons, allowing them to impose their will on the warlords. But this is far in the future."

But other longtime observers already see a shift away from the violent days of extremist, or personality-based parties.

"Personality didn't get Karzai elected," says Owen Kirby, Afghan country director for the International Republican Institute, a group closely tied with but separate from America's GOP. Karzai's appeal was based on the fact that he would continue the Bonn Process, Mr. Kirby says, referring to the UN-mandated effort started in December 2001 to create a democratic post- Taliban government.

"Karzai was part of a package and he ran on the package's platform, one recognized by everyone in the country; the Bonn Process," says Kirby.

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