With an almost assured victory as Afghanistan's first elected president to be announced shortly, Hamid Karzai is set to become a virtual George Washington - minus the wooden teeth.

His actions, beginning with his cabinet picks, could channel the future course of democracy in Afghanistan. If Karzai attracts competent, like-minded ministers, post-Karzai Afghanistan could be a stable multiparty system that allows the country's many ethnic, tribal, and religious factions to settle their differences peacefully.

But for that to happen, many feel that Karzai must do something he has long avoided: Set up a political party. Like America's founding father, Karzai hates parties. Both men believed that people should simply work together in the national interest to create a new nation. But observers, and some of Karzai's own advisers, say a two-party system would best move Afghan disputes beyond personal identity to ideas.

"I assure you that he is under pressure to form a party, and eventually he will decide to do it," says Zia Mojededi, a close Karzai adviser and member of the Afghan National Security Council. Already, Karzai has surrounded himself with like-minded secular technocrats, Mr. Mojededi says, adding, "Birds of a feather fly together."

"Once we have a political party, we will put a lot of energy into attracting young educated Afghans and important, liberal tribal elders and businessmen who will slowly, slowly push for modern secular ideas that can be adopted in our traditional culture," says Mojededi.

Karzai's antipathy for political parties is understandable, given the turmoil they have caused over the past 30 years. The late 1970s were a time of political ferment, with extreme leftist college students pushing for a communist totalitarian state on one hand and extreme right-wing Islamist students pushing for a return to 7th century Islamic values practiced during the time of the prophet Muhammad.

Some of these parties still exist - such as Jamaat-i Islami, Hizb-i Islami, and Hizb-i Wahadat - and form the cluster of support around violent warlords.

"Today, we have nothing resembling viable political parties," says David Garner, a political scientist and former USAID development officer with 30 years experience in Afghanistan and Pakistan. "You have night letters that threaten people. You have regional ethnic interests. You don't have clearly identified ideologies."

Yet the new political system - a strong presidency to implement policy and a powerful parliament to pass laws - may limit the party splintering and ideological extremes of the past. In particular, the need to garner 51 percent of the votes to win the top office provides a compelling reason to consolidate around two parties, says Mr. Garner.

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