Why Upper Midwest is up for grabs

"Wisconsin is close to being a microcosm of the nation," says John McAdams, a Marquette University political scientist.

And plenty of Wisconsin voters have much stronger opinions than those in the Driftwood Lounge. "This town is very split," says Sandy, a small business owner in Sturtevant who didn't want to give her last name for fear of driving away customers. "My best friend has Bush signs over everything. We just don't discuss it."

For Sandy, the economy is a top priority. "I'm barely hanging on," she says. "My husband's disabled. We'll lose our health insurance in January. I'm on a month-to-month basis at this point. Bush has done nothing for me."

A couple of strip malls down, sitting under the Halloween decorations at Annette's Café, Don and Carol Dalziel are staunch Bush supporters. The genial elderly couple vigorously oppose abortion and gay rights, worry about healthcare costs, and see Bush as the stronger leader.

"I think Kerry is a real backer of the United Nations, and I think that whole organization is so corrupt," says Mr. Dalziel, a retired manufacturing worker. "I don't think Kerry understands the magnitude of the problem."

"And I love Bush's wife, Laura, compared to Kerry's wife," adds Mrs. Dalziel.

An elderly mother and daughter finishing their lunch nearby are even more vehement. "I can't see how any working man can vote for Bush," says Mary Mann, a passionate nonagenarian. "When I was 6 years old, my father said to me you have to remember three things: You're an Irish-American, you're a Roman Catholic, and you're a Democrat."

She raised her two daughters alone, working as a waitress and typist, and doesn't think Bush has any sense of the struggles lower-income people face. "I think about the economy, and the companies going overseas and getting tax breaks, and it's a crying shame," Ms. Mann says.

Drive west from Sturtevant along Route 11 to Burlington, though, and the Bush signs multiply get more common as the landscape turns increasingly rural. Despite Kerry's contention that the Bush administration will oppose milk price supports when they come up for renewal in 2005, many farmers seem to sympathize more with the president.

Wisconsin, along with Minnesota and Iowa, tends to be pragmatic and down-to-earth. Images of Bush working on his ranch have more appeal here than Kerry windsurfing. "The whole idea of a liberal elite that runs the country: It's very effective, and a lot of people in the Midwest buy it," says Thomas Frank, author of "What's the Matter with Kansas?"

At this point, the upper Midwest is still up for grabs. That's bad news for Kerry, since defending his turf here diverts resources from other states. For his part, Bush hopes to offset a loss in a state like Ohio (20 electoral votes) by winning at least two of the three states. "He's worried about Ohio, needs a backup strategy, and is looking to pick up Wisconsin and Minnesota as insurance," says Dr. Jacobs.

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