Why Upper Midwest is up for grabs

In Sturtevant's Driftwood Lounge, a family restaurant with a popular lunch buffet that serves free pie on Tuesday, voter ambivalence is evident. Andy Sell, a painter and woodworker, should be the ideal Kerry supporter. His big issues are education and the environment. He hates the Patriot Act, and he's frustrated with Iraq. In 2000, he voted for Ralph Nader. Though he'll probably go with Kerry, he's having a hard time deciding.

"I saw somewhere that he told the Sierra Club he drove a hybrid car, and he told the auto unions he was the proud owner of an SUV," says Mr. Sell, shaking his head. "I like Kerry's ideas, but I'm not sure he'll follow through. Bush seems more certain - he does what he says. I just don't always like what he says."

A couple tables away, Nancy Schmidt and Sue Manos, two middle-aged co-workers on a lunch break, are leaning the opposite direction, but are just as lukewarm. Bush is "the lesser of two evils," says Ms. Manos. "With Kerry, you don't know where he stands." Ms. Schmidt agrees: "You need to have someone in there who can make a decision, and will stand behind a decision once he's made it. Kerry doesn't have a mind of his own."

Yet neither woman is happy with Bush's leadership: They worry about the economy, Iraq, and healthcare. "The last person I really liked on the economy was Reagan," says Manos.

Roger Clausen, finishing up his meringue pie in the next booth, has made his decision too: He won't vote. "I can't find anybody I like," he says with finality.

Indeed, while most recent polls show the candidates tied or Bush a few points ahead in the three states, the president isn't overly popular. A Knight-Ridder-MSNBC survey last week showed fewer than 50 percent of voters in those states believed the country is headed in the right direction.

A Chicago Tribune poll in Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, and Ohio earlier this month revealed a clear divide on different issues. Voters in all the states believed Kerry would do a better job than Bush at restoring jobs and economic growth, but by an equally substantial margin they believed Bush would be better at protecting the US from a terrorist attack. Yet voters listed healthcare and jobs ahead of terrorism, Iraq, moral issues, or taxes as their top concerns.

The national image of Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota as progressive states isn't really in line with reality, say a number of experts. Wisconsin, for instance, is "the state where the Republican party was founded, but it's also a state that has the heritage of the Progressive movement," says G. Donald Ferree, director of Public Opinion Research at the University of Wisconsin in Madison. "It put both Russ Feingold and Joe McCarthy in the Senate."

It's a state with a solid but dwindling manufacturing sector, and large numbers of farmers and hunters. Latte-sipping liberals abound in Madison, while dairy farmers struggle just outside the city. Milwaukee's substantial minority population contrasts with the state's all-white image elsewhere. Milwaukee has elected three socialist mayors, while Appleton, farther north, is the headquarters of the far-right John Birch Society.

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