World>Terrorism & Security
posted October 25, 2004, updated 12:00 p.m.

Sunni boycott threat to Iraqi election

Also, poll says religious parties more popular than interim government.

by Tom Regan | csmonitor.com

An influential group of Sunni Muslim clerics in Iraq said Sunday that they would call for a boycott of parlimentary elections in January if the US goes ahead with its plan to attack the insurgent-held Sunni city of Fallujah. The Washington Post reports that group of clerics, which has been key in helping to negotiate hostage releases and ceasefires in other trouble spots in Iraq, could "seriously undermine the poll's [planned January election] credibility" if they went ahead with their threat. The Christian Science Monitor reported Sunday that the outcome in Fallujah will help shape the outcome of Iraq's future.

'In the event that Fallujah is invaded or if it continues to be struck by planes the clerics of Iraq will call on Iraqis to boycott the elections,' spokesman Mohammed al-Faidhi told Reuters at the association's headquarters. 'This condition has already been breached as occupation forces have struck the town since the (clerics') conference and it is now possible to take this decision. A follow-up committee will meet and announce this decision at the appropriate time.'

Al Jazeera reports that the call for a boycott, while having a direct impact on whether the elections are seen as fair and credible, will most likely not be heeded by Iraq's other ethnic and sectarian groups.

The Boston Globe reports that the UN has offered to help restart talks about readmitting Iraqi troops to Fallujah. The talks had collapsed more than a week ago when Interim President Iyad Allawi threatened to storm the city unless residents handed over Jordanian Islamic militant leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and his fighters.


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Meanwhile, the Post reported Friday a new poll in Iraq showed that the US-backed interim government run by Mr. Allawi is losing "serious ground" in Iraq.

The poll, based on 2000 face-to-face interviews, also showed that Iraq's religious leaders are among the country's most popular politicians and would win the largest share of votes if the election were held today. While the Post says the prospect of a religious government in Iraq is the "worst case scenario" for the Bush administration, a "senior US State Department official" played down the results.

"When the interim government took over [in June], the [then-poll] numbers were artificially high. It's very difficult to meet expectations when they're sky-high," he said on the condition of anonymity because the data are still being analyzed.

The poll, conducted by the Washington-based, government-funded International Republican Institute, also offers some positive data on the situation in Iraq. Over 64 percent of Iraqi's believe that their lives will improve over the next 12 months, the IRI notes, and 58 percent believe that the elections will be held by the January 31st deadline. Jut over 50 percent of Iraqis also believe that religion and government should respect each other, but remain separate. The poll also showed, however, that more Iraqis blame their security problems on the US-led coalition than on terrorists or insurgents. In a side note, a Reuters story says that the Washington Post reported figures from the study not publicly released by the Institute.

"We had convinced everyone – Americans and Iraqis – that things might change with the return of sovereignty, but, in fact, things went the other way," a congressional staff member said [to the Washington Post]. "What's particularly damning is that the multinational force gets more blame than the terrorists for the problems in Iraq. It's all trending in the wrong way . . . and it's not likely we'll be able to change public sentiment much before the election."

Finally, in a trend that may affect Iraq's future even more than the outcome of possible elections in January, the Associated Pressreported Saturday that 250 guerrilla attacks in the 19-month period since the invasion have " blown apart pipelines and other oil infrastructure, squandering between $7 billion and $12 billion in potential export revenue." The losses, which amount to almost $500 for each and every Iraqi, mean that Iraq may still be unable to support its own reconstruction for several years to come.

Reuters reported that the latest pipeline attacks happened Saturday night when saboteurs bombed two oil pipelines "transporting crude from northern and eastern Iraq to Baghdad's Dora refinery."