Battle for the 'Cactus Corridor'

Walter and Louanne LeBeau remember a time when most of their neighbors were conservative like them. Staunch supporters of President Bush, the LeBeaus back his tax cuts and support him on "the moral issues." While they have questions about Iraq, they feel Mr. Bush is the best candidate to "get this thing settled," says Walter, who works for a car company.

But lately, "we feel like we're in the minority," says Louanne, eating at an In-N-Out Burger on the outskirts of Las Vegas. Over the past few years, many Californians have moved into the area, she says, bringing more liberal views with them - and turning this once reliably Republican state into one of the most competitive battlegrounds in the nation.

With fewer states in play as the race enters its final days - and whole regions of the country now largely uncontested - the campaigns are still focusing intently on no fewer than three Western states: New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada. It was no accident that Bush and Sen. John Kerry both went to Las Vegas after their third debate; in the past week alone, Nevadans have also been treated to visits from Laura Bush and Elizabeth Edwards, with Senator Kerry scheduled to stop in Reno again Friday.

The competitiveness of the "Cactus Corridor" was foreshadowed in 2000: Despite all the attention paid to Florida, New Mexico was the most narrowly decided state, with Al Gore squeaking out a surprise win by just 366 votes. Driving that victory was a churn of demographic change - including an influx of retirees, young workers, Hispanics, and military families - that has been reshaping the face, and increasingly the politics, of the entire region.

And Nevada is the fastest-growing state of them all. During the 1990s, the Silver State grew by an astonishing 67 percent; since 2000 alone, it has gained some 200,000 new residents - making its political leanings harder and harder to predict. After voting Republican in every presidential election since 1968, Nevadans narrowly went for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 (in part because of strong support for Ross Perot). This year, most analysts tend to give Bush a slight edge - he won here in 2000, albeit by a mere 22,000 votes, and most polls have shown him holding onto a slim lead. But nearly everyone agrees the results will hinge on how many new residents show up to vote.

"Ultimately, it comes down to turnout," says David Damore, a political scientist at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas (UNLV). "If the Democrats can get their newly registered voters to the polls, they have a chance of winning."

Like most battleground states, Nevada is highly polarized - and for both sides, winning means generating high turnout in their strongholds to offset losses elsewhere. Bush's strongest support comes from the rural parts of the state, among ranchers and miners who typify Nevada's longtime antitax, antiregulation conservatism. Kerry's chances, on the other hand, lie in Clark County, which includes Las Vegas and holds some two-thirds of the state's total population. It tilts slightly Democratic - though not overwhelmingly so.

Page: 1 | 2 | 3