Ads' ferocity rises as days tick away

With hundreds of millions of dollars in ads, two national conventions, and now three presidential debates behind them, President Bush and Sen. John Kerry are entering the final two-week stretch of the campaign in the same position they've been in for most of the year: tied.

Although the candidates have lately traded swings of momentum - and one may yet find a way to break the race open - they appear increasingly likely to spend the remaining days fighting for every inch of ground, trying to eke out a win by whatever means possible.

Each man faces significant obstacles toward gaining a decisive edge: Mr. Bush's approval ratings are hovering at or below 50 percent, dangerously low for an incumbent, with a majority of Americans saying the country is heading in the wrong direction. While Bush had gone to some lengths to disqualify his opponent, spending millions on attack ads labeling him a "flip-flopper," Senator Kerry appears to have erased at least some of that damage with strong debate performances.

But Kerry's last, best opportunity to shift the dynamics of the race may have been the debates - a rare forum where he could stand toe to toe with the president - and while that brought him to parity, after trailing Bush for several weeks, it did not provide him with a lead. Indeed, several national polls over the weekend actually showed Bush ticking back up slightly, though the two remain in a statistical dead heat.

Both campaigns have already launched an escalating blur of sound bites and attacks - running through a dizzying range of issues in the search for even a slight advantage, as the focus shifts toward getting out the vote. "[The race] is kind of like a boat that is drifting at this junction - and it's waiting for a final tip," says Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio. "These last two weeks are probably going to be more contentious than we've seen. The decibel level is going to get higher."

In recent days, the attacks coming from both sides have grown more pointed - and, to observers on both sides, more desperate.

Kerry has released a slew of new ads attacking Bush for everything from the flu vaccine shortage to claiming the president plans a "January surprise" to privatize Social Security. He has also been arguing that a reinstatement of the draft would be more likely under a Bush presidency - a claim Bush has flatly and repeatedly denied, and which campaign manager Ken Mehlman called an "entirely inappropriate" effort to "frighten voters."

For his part, Bush has once again been pounding Kerry for his vote against the $87 billion in funding for Iraq and Afghanistan - a vote Kerry cast one year ago this weekend - and running ads attacking Kerry's healthcare plan as a massive government takeover (a claim independent analysts describe as misleading). The Republican National Committee, meanwhile, released a new ad calling Kerry "the most liberal person ever to run for president."

"What we're seeing out of them is a level of hysteria that is sort of shocking," says one Kerry adviser.

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