World>Terrorism & Security
posted October 14, 2004, updated 12:15 a.m.

Initial report: Afghan election a success

Seeds of democracy sown. Do results foreshadow outcome in Iraq?

By Jim Bencivenga | csmonitor.com

Vote counting in Afghanistan's first-ever presidential election began on Thursday, five days after polls closed, reports The Associated Press.

Ballot boxes have flooded in by road, air and even donkey from across the rugged, impoverished country to counting centers that will determine the identity of the country's first popularly elected head of state.

But earlier in the week, the first nationwide election in the history of Afghanistan had been " shaken by charges of electoral fraud," reported The Christian Science Monitor. The elections looked to have been " thrown into chaos after 15 candidates announced they were boycotting them over claims that indelible ink used to prevent voters voting twice could be rubbed off," reported The Scotsman. A panel of foreign experts was created to validate the electoral process, reports the Scotsman. They immediately began sifting through dozens of complaints of alleged irregularities from the 16 candidates, including front-running incumbent Hamid Karzai. By mid-week the independent inquiry conducted by the panel of foreign experts ruled that "none of the complaints appear serious enough to invalidate final results expected at the end of October," reports AP. The probe prompted many of Karzai's 15 challengers "to back off from a threat not to recognize the outcome."


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The election process seemed back on track as of Thursday, reports the Scotsman, when ethnic Uzbek strongman, Abdul Rashid Dostum, became the latest candidate to abandon a possible boycott. Earlier,

Yunus Qanooni, Mr Karzai's main opponent, announced he would accept the establishment of an independent inquiry panel to investigate the fraud allegations. The two other major opposition candidates - Mohammed Mohaqeq, the leader of the Hazara minority, and the Uzbek General Dostum - had already declared they had not joined the boycott.

From the outset, analysts and observer groups warned that the Afghan vote would not be flawless, given the Taliban insurgency, warlord intimidation, poor security and monitoring, and under-training of electoral staff," said The Pak Tribune. The first major hurdle in the election process, successfully accomplished, was guaranteeing the safety of Afghanis to vote. Now, "the biggest threat to the polls' ultimate success" would be the oppositions' rejection of the results. That appears unlikely, reports the Tribune. Afghans and US military commanders called the election a " defeat for the Taliban, because the rebels vowed to turn the vote into a day of bloodshed but managed only a smattering of minor attacks," reports The Taipei Times. An exit poll pointed to Mr Karzai's having won "considerably more than the 50 percent of the vote he would need to avoid a run-off with the second-placed candidate," reports the Scotsman. Though it is still too early to definitively judge the success of the elections, initial results clearly point to a passing grade, reports the Monitor.

By some measures - high voter turnout, low levels of violence, and participation of women even in conservative southern areas - Afghanistan's first election has been a resounding success. Yet flaws like the ink imbroglio and candidate charges of favoritism by the US were predictable and preventable, human rights advocates say, and were the almost inevitable result of an election that was rushed from the beginning.

Iraqi elections a whole different story Invariably, the world will turn its attention from Afghanistan's vote to the national elections in Iraq planned for January. On this front, there is widespread uncertainty that they will translate into a similar success, reports the BBC.

The Americans are saying it, the British Government is saying it and so too is Iyad Allawi. Iraqis will go to the polls by the end of January, come what may.

When Saddam Hussein was in power, participation and the outcome were assured. "Saddam's victory was of course guaranteed even before it all began - 100% of the vote it was in the end, with 100% turnout," reports the BBC. Yet, no one knows the exact population of Iraq, notes the BBC. It's somewhere around 25 million but "there's been no census done, there's no electoral register," giving new meaning to the adage, that democractic government is a messy process, but better than all the other forms of government. More ominously, says the BBC,

Six days ago, 50 people, mostly young men, were blown up in central Baghdad. They'd been queuing up hoping to find work as policemen. Imagine what insurgents might do to crowds of would-be voters. The UN Secretary General has said he doesn't see how credible elections can be held unless the security situation improves. Iraqis want the freedom at last to cast a real ballot. The country's Shia majority, which was repressed under Saddam, is particularly keen. They also need to know they'll be able to vote safely.