Ballot wars over same-sex marriage

Same-sex marriage may be the sleeper issue of the 2004 presidential race.

While neither George Bush nor John Kerry talks much about it, gay marriage may now rival gun control or abortion in how voters perceive - and are likely to vote for - the candidates. And in a very tight race this wedge issue could make the difference in key states where measures banning gay marriage are on the ballot; there are 11 such states, including such battleground states as Michigan, Ohio, and Oregon.

"It's a hot-button issue for people right now, it definitely is," says Craig Rimmerman, professor of political science at Hobart and William Smith Colleges in Geneva, N.Y.

While superficially the presidential candidates hold similar positions - they're both against legalizing same-sex marriage - they're far apart in how they view it. And their positions on other matters of gay rights are very different as well.

This has generated fierce campaigning by partisans on either side: Gay-rights groups bashing Bush on his stand on such issues as civil unions for gay couples, child adoption, hate crimes laws, and "don't ask, don't tell" in the military; conservative groups like the Christian Coalition lauding the GOP platform on the proposed Federal Marriage Amendment to the US Constitution.

Former presidential candidate Gary Bauer has just launched a $500,000 TV ad campaign in Michigan and Pennsylvania declaring that Kerry is "too liberal for America."

"We believe it is important for the American people to know which candidates will defend traditional marriage," says Mr. Bauer, president of Americans United to Preserve Marriage, a political action committee not bound by campaign-finance laws.

Ticking off a dozen issues from domestic partnerships to AIDS prevention, the National Gay and Lesbian Task Force, on the other hand, calls the Bush administration "the most antigay in the history of the gay-rights movement."

"This administration has attacked equal rights for gay people and gay families on all fronts, including consciously using gay marriage as a wedge issue to divide the nation, win reelection, and fuel antigay organizing," says Matt Foreman, the group's executive director.

Indeed, the goal for both campaigns is to rouse their respective bases as well as to scoop up those undecideds who may feel strongly about the issue. But with Americans opposed to legalizing same-sex marriage by 2 to 1 (according to many opinion polls) and the ban initiatives likely to pass in the 11 states where they're on the ballot, the Bush campaign appears to have the advantage.

"While gay marriage has a greater overall impact on voters than either abortion or gun control ... [f]or the most part, gay marriage is a make-or-break voting issue only to the opponents of that idea," the Pew Research Center reported earlier this year. "Moreover, even among gay marriage opponents, the issue has a disproportionate impact on some groups notably conservative Republicans, evangelical Christians, and voters age 65 and older."

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