Wariness over Turkey's EU bid

"We all say we want to support democracy in the Muslim and Arab world, and here we have a chance to do that," says Emma Bonino, a former EU commissioner for humanitarian affairs. "It would be a good idea to take the first real opportunity we have had."

In order to join the EU, countries must guarantee democracy, the rule of law, human rights, and respect for minorities. The Turkish government has introduced reforms recently to reach these standards, at least on paper.

But Turkey's recent history of torture and military coups, and a vicious campaign against autonomy-minded Kurds leave some observers skeptical.

"The start of negotiations now is too early," said Hans-Gert Pöttering, who heads the European People's Party, the largest party in the European Parliament. "The human rights situation is dissatisfying," he told reporters.

The European Parliament is one of the institutions where Turkey - with a population (currently estimated at 69 million) expected to reach 82 million by 2020, the largest in Europe - would have most influence, since it would send more members than any other country.

That has sparked fears for the EU's future among critics, such as Valery Giscard d'Estaing, the former French president and architect of the new European constitution. He predicted last year that Turkish membership would spell "the end of the EU" because Turkey has "a different culture, a different approach, and a different way of life."

Others argue against membership on grounds of geography: 90 percent of Turkey is in Asia, not Europe, and it borders Iraq, Syria, and Iran - not exactly preferred European neighbors.

But it is precisely that geography, proponents say, that would make Turkey such a valuable member of the EU. Strategically placed, militarily powerful, and influential in the energy-rich new states of Central Asia, Turkey "is a question of life insurance for the EU," says Michel Rocard, former French prime minister. "Geostrategy imposes [membership] on us."

Turkey's vibrant economy and huge market are attractive to the mainly sluggish economies of Western Europe. But some predict unmanageably huge EU handouts to Turkey, in the form of agricultural subsidies and development grants, to bring its living standards up to European norms. Turks have only one-fourth the wealth of their EU cousins.

Even if talks begin early next year, Turkey is unlikely to meet membership conditions in less than a decade. By then, European leaders hope, their electorates will have come around.

Indeed, though 56 percent of polled French said they opposed membership today, 63 percent said they would be in favor if Turkey makes "the necessary political and economic changes."

• Area: 312,232 square miles (a little larger than Texas).

• Population: 69 million.

• Ethnic groups: Turkish 80%; Kurdish 20%

• GDP, per capita: $6,700

• Religions: Muslim 99.8%; Other (mostly Christians and Jews) 0.2%

- Source: CIA World Factbook

• Tomorrow: the view from Turkey.

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