Bold gambit to reclaim rebel turf

US-led forces have subdued the rebel stronghold of Samarra in two days of fighting, the first of a series of military steps expected in coming weeks designed to seize control of insurgent cities and pave the way for January elections.

But the relative ease of the Samarra operation - in which a 5,000-strong joint US-Iraqi force launched one of the largest coalition strikes since the 2003 US invasion of Iraq - belies a risky strategy that will rely on freshly trained and untested Iraqi forces for success, analysts say.

The inexperience of those units, which will be responsible for long-term security after the cities are retaken, is one reason that much tougher ground elements of the offensive, against Ramadi and Fallujah, are expected to wait until November - after the US presidential election and to give Iraqis more training time.

But a wave of increasingly lethal attacks by insurgents has killed hundreds of Iraqis in recent weeks, which may be prompting earlier moves on softer targets like Samarra.

"This is about getting control of the country ahead of elections, but what worries me is: What type of control? And how sustainable is it?" asks Toby Dodge, an Iraq expert at the International Institute of Strategic Studies in London. "You are going to garrison Samarra, put troops on the ground and police it, and bring in indigenous forces," says Mr. Dodge. "We know from the past that the police aren't very good at imposing political order. And the National Guard - which everyone in the Green Zone [where US and Iraqi leaders reside] invests a lot of hope in - is penetrated from top to bottom by [insurgents]."

US forces Sunday controlled much of Samarra, 60 miles north of Baghdad. The US military says it killed 125 insurgents and captured 88 more; residents say many civilians are among the dead. Rebels marched openly in Samarra last week with banners of Tawhid and Jihad, the group led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi that has claimed numerous car bombs, attacks, and the capture and killing of foreign hostages.

The Associated Press quoted one grateful local resident. "The city has been living in a state of lawlessness," said Abbas Mahmoud. "I hope that after this operation, law and order will be restored." But many others in Samarra criticized the number of civilian casualties.

The AP also quoted US officers praising Iraqi troops, numbering 2,000 in the weekend offensive. "The more operations they conduct, the more confidence they will gain, and the better they will perform," a US military spokesman in Samarra said Saturday.

The shift to US-led military offensives - which indicate that US and Iraqi officials see few other options - was also evident in Fallujah, 25 miles west of Baghdad. Weeks of airstrikes continued against targets the US says are linked to Mr. Zarqawi's network.

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