Iraq effort by the numbers

It took US commanders a full year, from the invasion of Iraq until the spring of this year, to realize that the insurgency was serious, say some analysts. Thus it is only now that they are pulling together a serious effort to develop indigenous Iraqi security forces.

"In terms of training efforts ... I do think they will be able to do more and more," says Michael O'Hanlon, a military expert at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

They will need to, because the insurgency is obviously "very strong," in Mr. O'Hanlon's estimation. September was a particularly deadly month for US forces, with 71 fatalities. Insurgent attacks and general crime seem to be on the rise throughout the country.

Figures for attacks vary widely, depending on what kind of attack is being measured and the definition of "attack." According to a report in Wednesday's New York Times, there were more than 2,300 attacks against all targets in Iraq in September.

The US State Department's Daily Updates, however, track a more narrow measure of major incidents involving coalition or Iraqi troops. By its count, there were 172 attacks in August and September.

Of these, 54 were in Baghdad, and 67 more occurred in other areas of the restive Sunni triangle. The next-most dangerous area was Mosul, with 27 attacks. Remaining incidents were spread across all areas of Iraq.

The attacks are carried out by a broad variety of groups, from Sunni insurgents to Shiite insurgents and some foreign terrorists. They should not be minimized, according to CSIS's Mr. Cordesman.

"We also have to keep in perspective that this is not a nationwide popular movement. There is no cohesion [among insurgents]," says Cordesman.

Meanwhile, some measurements of civilian progress are going up. There are now more than 1.5 million telephone subscribers in Iraq, including some 738,000 cellphone subscribers, according to the US Agency for International Development. That's 85 percent more than existed before the war.

Crude-oil production inched up in September, although the energy sector remains a favorite insurgent target. Some 2,000 schools nationwide have been rehabbed. In northern Iraq, the Kurdistan regional government has opened an Internet cafe and training center that will allow 2,000 people access to the Web.

Iraqis overwhelmingly disapprove of the US occupation. But one retired military officer still employed by the Pentagon notes that "on virtually every poll I have seen, even in the worst of conditions the Iraqi people reflect the belief that their lives are improving and will continue to improve."

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