For many voters, election nearly over

Thursday night's presidential debate, likely to be watched by some 50 million Americans, could change the course of the entire campaign. But for some voters at least, the outcome will be irrelevant, as they've already cast their ballots.

In a gradual but significant change to the political process, many more states are now allowing people to vote ahead of Election Day, without having to provide the usual excuses. The idea is that, in an age when many Americans are juggling demands of work and family and are increasingly strapped for time, more convenient forms of voting may help stem a decline in turnout.

This year, 35 states are allowing unconditional forms of early voting, either on a voting machine or in person by absentee ballot, according to Electionline.org, while 24 states are allowing no-excuse absentee balloting. Voting has already begun in Iowa and Maine, and will start in a number of other states over the next few weeks.

Experts estimate that at least a quarter of the total national vote may be cast before Nov. 2. The trend is producing major changes in how campaigns operate, with get-out-the-vote drives that last weeks instead of days and are ever more individually targeted. Parties can not only track voters who have requested early ballots, but in many cases, can hand-deliver those ballots - a factor that has some experts worried about the potential for fraud.

More important, the trend is likely to have a significant, if not yet entirely understood, effect on the timing and trajectory of campaigns. Attacks launched in August or September - such as the slew of third-party ads targeting Sen. John Kerry's war record - may prove more deadly than any barbs that come at the end. It also could affect the calculus of when to peak: Senator Kerry's much-vaunted tendency to pick up steam in the final weeks of a race, if it happens, could now come too late to make a difference.

With many of the most important moments of the campaign, such as debates, still to come - not to mention unpredictable external events, from violence in Iraq to changes in oil prices to the looming possibility of a terror attack - voters could easily wind up making their decisions based on entirely different sets of facts and conditions, depending on when they mark their ballots.

"It changes the dynamic in the course of the election," says Tova Wang of the Century Foundation in New York. "At best, [early voters] are losing out on possible details on the character and policies of the candidates." At worst, she adds, voters could be "completely disenfranchised" - as in 2002, when Minnesotans who voted early for Sen. Paul Wellstone found their ballots irrelevant after he was killed in a plane crash.

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