Task for the debaters

The latest Christian Science Monitor/TIPP poll shows Bush's 45 percent to 42 percent lead over Kerry last week (with 2 percent for Ralph Nader) back to a dead heat - 45 percent each, and again 2 percent for Mr. Nader.

"The major charge for Kerry in this environment is to make himself the acceptable alternative," says John Kenneth White, a political scientist at Catholic University in Washington. "He has to provide people with a comfort level that he knows where he's going, that he can be a strong leader, and that he can lead us in the war on terror."

Professor White sees a parallel in the election of 1980, when Ronald Reagan challenged then-President Jimmy Carter. The race was close until the end, as voters withheld judgment on Mr. Reagan's suitability for the presidency. It was his debate with Carter that provided that reassurance.

But with the nation at war, Kerry perhaps faces a steeper climb than Reagan did in the effort to oust a sitting commander in chief. For Kerry, too, the burden is to persuade the public to throw out a sitting president.

"Kerry has to convince Americans that he's presidential material," says Stephen Wayne of Georgetown University. "He's got to define his positions; he's got to reassure Americans; he's got to provide a sense of direction; and of course he's got to show that he's approachable ... not an aloof politician."

So much has been made of each man's debating prowess - Kerry more in the classically trained manner, Bush in his less orthodox, simple-and-on-message style - that for once the quadrennial expectations game seems to have been defused. Each campaign seems to have dueled that point to a draw. In fact, perhaps for the first time in his life, Bush may be going into a debate with some polls showing the public expects him to win.

Garry Mauro, the Democrat who opposed Bush for the Texas governorship in 1998, says the Kerry team should expect no surprises from the president.

"President Bush will be totally focused," Mr. Mauro said last weekend on "Fox News Sunday." "He will be talking directly to the American people. He will be using the same themes he's practiced over and over and over again."

Kerry will show a high degree of discipline, too, says former Massachusetts Gov. William Weld, who tried unsuccessfully to unseat Kerry from the US Senate.

"He's one of the most articulate people in public life, if not the most," said Mr. Weld, also on Fox. As for Kerry's weaknesses, Weld responded: "Some of the answers could perhaps be shorter."

New poll (Sept. 22-27)
Bush: 45
Kerry: 45

Prior poll (Sept. 14-18)
Bush: 45
Kerry: 42

Source: Christian Science Monitor/TIPP poll. Margin of error 4 percent.

• Votes for Ralph Nader are not included.

Page: 1 | 2