Task for the debaters

Neither George Bush nor John Kerry has ever lost a debate, or so the legend goes.

In fact, observers of presidential debates like to point out, neither has lost a debate in a head-to-head matchup. During primaries, on a crowded debate stage, both have been edged out by verbally gifted rivals (see Republican Alan Keyes and Democrat John Edwards). But no matter now, as the principal candidates in the Nov. 2 elections suit up for their first head-to-head matchup on Thursday evening at the University of Miami.

President Bush takes the stage with a decided edge. National polls show him beating the Massachusetts senator, with voters echoing the Bush campaign mantra that Kerry doesn't have a clear vision for the country. This debate, likely to be the most-watched of three duels over the next two weeks, represents Kerry's best chance to alter the dynamics of the race, unforeseen events notwithstanding. Still, Bush is not home free. He, too, has work to do in Coral Gables, Fla.

"Kerry still has to prove himself as an effective foreign-policy leader, but Bush has this albatross-like thing called Iraq to worry about," says John Mueller, a political scientist at Ohio State University.

In the runup to Thursday's debate, much has been made of the detailed agreement struck by the Bush and Kerry teams, governing such minutiae as the distance between podiums (meant to deemphasize Kerry's height advantage), the visibility of timing lights (meant to embarrass the long-winded Kerry), and what cameras may and may not show as each man speaks.

Since the Kennedy-Nixon debate in 1960, the first such televised matchup perceived as playing a decisive role in electing a president, campaigns have grown increasingly obsessed with any small element that could be spun to devastating effect - such as the first President Bush being caught on camera looking at his watch during a debate with then-Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton in 1992, and Vice President Al Gore sighing audibly during his first debate with then-Texas Gov. George Bush in 2000.

Still, as much as commentators and the campaigns themselves like to sweat the small stuff and opine on style - simplicity vs. nuance, folksiness vs. patrician bearing - this is a debate where words will be just as critical. Embedded in the good-news polling for Bush lie warning signs. The latest Pew Research Center survey, released Tuesday, shows fewer voters favoring Bush over Kerry on Iraq than two weeks ago, and 60 percent of the public rating the economy as only fair or poor.

"The poll finds that Bush's gains in support are being driven more by perceptions of Kerry's weakness - especially on leadership and other personal traits - than by improved opinions of Bush," writes Pew center director Andrew Kohut.

Page: 1 | 2