Electoral battleground is shifting

When the locations for the presidential and vice presidential debates were first selected, all were in states expected to be among the most competitive battlegrounds in the nation: Florida, Missouri, Ohio, and Arizona.

Yet with the debates now fast approaching, the electoral map has changed. Today, Arizona looks safe for President Bush, and Missouri increasingly appears to be as well. Ohio is still competitive, but is an uphill fight for Sen. John Kerry. Only Florida remains a true tossup.

It's just one example of how the playing field has contracted and shifted as the presidential race enters its most intense phase. In part, it reflects an inevitable winnowing as campaigns make tough choices about where to allocate a limited pool of resources in the final weeks.

Demographic shifts and changing conditions on the ground have allowed a handful of new states - and regions - to emerge from under the radar as this year's most contested battlegrounds. Specifically Mr. Bush is now looking to take some states in the upper Midwest from Mr. Kerry's column, while Kerry may have an opening in some Southwestern and Western states, along with New Hampshire.

But above all, both campaigns are zeroing in on the states with the biggest electoral payoffs - which this year, once again, means the election could come down to Florida and its 27 electoral votes.

The state remains, in the estimation of many analysts, the closest in the nation. And the fact that it has lately been wracked by four hurricanes - leaving many voters paying no attention to politics - only adds to its unpredictability.

"Any way I look at it, Kerry has to win Florida," says independent pollster Dick Bennett. "If he can win Florida and [hold] Pennsylvania, he will win the electoral college. It's that simple. And if he can't win Florida and Pennsylvania, he won't be able to win some of the other close states either."

Overall, Bush seems to have an edge in more battleground states, with polls showing him solidifying his lead in many "red" states he won in 2000 and forcing Kerry to defend more of the "blue" turf. Gone are the days when the Kerry campaign boasted about expanding the playing field to places like Arkansas and Louisiana - states in which, like Missouri, the campaign is no longer spending money on advertising. By contrast, the Bush campaign has lately suggested it might try to challenge Kerry in more Democratic-leaning states such as Washington and even New Jersey.

"The reason the reds are redder is because the president has consolidated his base. And the blues are purpler because Kerry has not," says independent pollster John Zogby.

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