To boost US security, an energy diet

Despite such gains, the volume of energy wasted continues to be enormous. As much as 5 percent of residential electricity use is for TVs, VCRs, and DVD and CD players that are turned off, but waiting in standby mode to be used - at a cost of $3 billion annually, according to Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

Cars and light trucks have also fared poorly of late. Their combined fuel economy, after improving rapidly from 1977 to 1985, peaked at 26.2 miles per gallon in 1987, according to Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Since then, their fuel economy has declined, reaching 25.1 m.p.g. last year.

While it is true that much of the low-hanging fruit of energy efficiency was picked in the 1970s and 1980s, continuously improving technology and rising energy costs have together created the means and incentive for a whole new crop to be picked, experts suggest.

"There's no question future energy savings can be very significant, despite what's already been accomplished," says Steven Nadel, executive director of the ACEEE and an author of the recent study.

In electricity generation and consumption, for example, more efficient lighting, motors, insulation, and other consumer programs could save the energy equivalent of about 260 large 1,000-megawatt power plants, he estimates, plus the costs of construction that would run into the hundreds of billions of dollars.

"It won't entirely stop the need for new power plants," Nadel says, "but if we pursued efficiency aggressively, we could easily save the capital costs of many new plants - not to mention the environmental costs."

If the US could improve its average fleet mileage by just 3.25 m.p.g., the saved energy would replace the equivalent of today's Persian Gulf imports, RMI estimates.

Improved efficiency could reduce not only the amount of energy consumers use but also the price they pay for it.

For example: The price of natural gas has more than doubled since 1999. But a 2 percent to 4 percent cut in demand could dramatically reduce prices by more than 20 percent, the ACEEE estimates. A smaller but significant price decrease could come from even modest cuts in oil use, analysts say.

Efficiency has worked before, these experts add. From 1977 to 1985, the nation's gross domestic product rose 27 percent while oil use fell 17 percent, Mr. Lovins points out. At the same time, net oil imports fell 42 percent and imports from the Middle East fell 87 percent. OPEC lost half of its oil market and its pricing power.

More recently, several states have also seen gains from efficiency.

Case in point: When hard-pressed California was hit by an energy crisis in 2001, the state achieved a remarkable 6 percent electricity saving - the output equivalent of more than two 1,000 megawatt power plants. Other states, including New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Vermont also saw significant savings with programs they implemented, according to the ACEEE report.

Energy efficiency, however, is the Rodney Dangerfield of energy, routinely dismissed by policymakers as a tool for meeting US energy demand. Efficiency is the word preferred by Lovins and others since "conservation" has been equated with turning down thermostats and wearing itchy sweaters to stay warm.

All this makes many politicians wary of taking a strong stand.

While pitching a new approach to energy independence early in his presidential campaign, John Kerry seems to be downplaying the issue of late, especially in swing states like auto-centric Michigan, some say. Republicans, meanwhile, mention energy-efficiency measures in the party platform, but speak little about it.

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