Afghan rebels plan for elections

"The Taliban had been ruling Afghanistan exclusively, and they are not yet prepared to share what they perceive is their exclusive right to rule with other resistance groups like Jaish or former mujahideen or Hikmatyar," says Rahimullah Yusufzai, a Peshawar-based expert on Afghan affairs.

Since their ouster, the Taliban have carried out numerous attacks against US forces, Afghan police, and aid workers, including the bombing at the Kabul offices of Dyncorps, an American firm that provides security for President Karzai.

They have also begun distributing hundreds of pamphlets urging people to stay away from the ballot. The Taliban want low turnout to prove that elections are being held without Pashtun representation, deepening the alienation that prevails among those who believe they don't have a share in the mainly Northern Alliance-dominated central government.

Jaish's emergence and calls for unity seem to lend credence to recent reports that have suggested the Taliban has begun to weaken, or even splinter. Only Sunday, Maj. Scott Nelson told a news briefing in Kabul that some rebel leaders have been seeking out a way to come in from the cold.

"We have seen Taliban, low-level, mid-level, and high-level individuals contacting both the government and the [US-led military] coalition to talk about reconciliation," said Major Nelson. He added that Taliban militants don't have the ability to "significantly impact security and stability in Afghanistan," and were concentrating on soft civilian targets instead.

But several observers discount the notion that the Taliban movement is weakening or breaking up.

"Initially [the Taliban] may have been bringing extremists from [Pakistan's] tribal region, but now they are finding new recruits from the villages of Afghanistan," says analyst Mohammad Riaz. "With constant guerrilla attacks against the US-allied forces ... the Taliban have created doubts among the minds of Afghans about the final success of America in Afghanistan."

Janullah Hashimzadah, a Peshawar-based journalist, says that "there are differences between the leaders of the Taliban, but [these are] not surfacing because they believe it would benefit the US [and] Karzai and disillusion their supporters."

Since Omar has been forced into hiding by a US manhunt, the command of the organization has been turned over to a 10-member shura, or council. "It lacks central command," says Mr. Hashmizadah.

Despite pressures on Taliban leaders to remove Omar as their chief, they are prevented by an oath of allegiance says Behrouz Khan, a Peshawar-based analyst. According to custom, such an oath can only be broken by death. "Even if they break the oath, then common Afghans will view them with dislike," says Mr. Khan. "They cannot survive politically, and that is why none of these small splinters has been a success."

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